Skyline Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Grant Helgeson

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

The avalanche hazard is CONSIDERABLE on mid & high elevation slopes out of the wind. Human triggered loose snow avalanches are likely in the new snow. The new snow will be easily formed into sensitive wind slabs when the winds pick up, so, watch for changing conditions which will quickly increase the avalanche hazard.

A MODERATE hazard exists for deep slab avalanches failing at the ground on steep, shady, high elevation slopes. (Those that face N, NE & E) Those without expert avalanche skills should avoid these slopes.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

The Skyline fared very well with the latest series of storms. Storm totals vary from 13" at Millers flats to more than 16" above electric lake.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Very little natural activity was observed yesterday. The exception was a loose snow avalanche measuring 40' wide by 200' long on a NE facing slope along Wedding Ring (aka Skyline Ridge). The failure was entirely in the new snow, and looked to be human triggered.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

The latest storm really produced for the Skyline, laying down over 16" of classic Utah cold smoke powder. The winds have been well behaved, and haven't pushed the snow around too much yet. Thus, my primary concern is loose snow avalanches failing at the new/old snow interface. While this is a manageable avalanche problem, remember that even a loose snow avalanche can be deadly, especially if the slide pushes you over a rock band, into a gulley where the snow can pile up deep or strains a rider through trees.

If the wind picks up this hazard will quickly become un-manageable, and the hazard will increase as fresh wind slabs develop. Be on the watch for changing conditions this weekend.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Although they're getting harder and harder to trigger, testing shows that the facets at the ground are still sensitive. My biggest concern is a new snow avalanche stepping down and triggering a large avalanche which fails at the ground. This hazard is limited to high elevation slopes that have not previously avalanched on the shady side of the mountain. Expert avalanche skills are needed to mitigate this hazard.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

An unsettled pattern will produce an inch or two of new snowfall over the weekend before clearing early next week. Daytime high's will be in the mid twenties with low's around 10 F. High pressure settles back in next week with the potential for a Canadian cold front Wednesday.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

See or trigger an avalanche? I'd like to hear about it. You can reach me on my mobile: 801-824-0305, or shoot me an email: grant@utahavalanchecenter.org Observers may choose to remain anonymous if they wish.

I will update this forecast by 7am Saturday January 9th.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.