BOTTOM LINE
Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)
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Danger Rose Tutorial
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High elevation slopes have an avalanche danger of MODERATE regardless of aspect. Steep upper elevation terrain has pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger. Be especially careful on shady aspects near any type of natural hazard (stumps, rocks, downed trees, etc.) Mid elevation shady slopes (NW, N, NE & E) have a MODERATE avalanche danger. All other slopes have a LOW avalanche danger. |
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CURRENT CONDITIONS |
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Our snowpack averages 30" throughout the forecast area. This weeks cold temperatures have subjected our shallow pack to a large temperature gradient. Thus, our pack continues to facet (loose strength/rot).
Many of the natural obstacles (rocks, bushes, stumps) are not buried yet, or, are just below the surface. There's still plenty of grass poking out on almost every slope I visit. It's not quite time to get after it on the Skyline. |
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RECENT ACTIVITY |
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I got out during the holiday and found very little natural activity. Our last round of storm snow has settled out, and is now bridging our weak layers in most areas. While natural activity is at a halt for the moment, it's still possible to have human triggered avalanches. |
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THREAT #1 |
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PROBABILITY |
SIZE |
TREND |
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Over the next
24
hours.
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Our snowpack has had some time to adjust to the latest load. While it's getting harder to trigger a deep slab avalanche, it's not impossible. Cold temperatures continue to facet the entire pack, meaning its loosing strength. With conservative route finding in moderate terrain, folks can go out and have a safe day in the mountains.
This all goes out the window when it comes to our bigger canyons. I'm thinking about the big play areas like Staker, Rolfson, Potters, etc. The pack has solidified to a point where it's possible to get into these kinds of places. But, throwing a high-mark in areas like these (steep, rocky) would be an incredibly risky scenario.
Regardless of where you choose to ride, be weary of places where the snowpack is thin; especially near rocks. In these areas the facets are closer to the surface, thus, this is where you are likely to trigger an avalanche. Once started, the settled storm snow that was your friend will quickly become your worst enemy. Failures in our facets at the ground will result in avalanches cleaning out the entire season's snowpack. |
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THREAT #2 |
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| WHERE |
PROBABILITY |
SIZE |
TREND |
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Over the next
24
hours.
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We received a few inches of light density snow on Wednesday night. Moderate winds formed shallow yet sensitive wind slabs on the lee sides of ridges. As always, avoid slopes that look wind loaded. These can be identified by their fat pillow like look. Tweak small test slopes before committing to bigger terrain. |
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MOUNTAIN WEATHER |
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Good news. The ridge of high pressure that has dominated the region begins to break down on Sunday. A trof of low pressure will settle in at the beginning of next week, and we should find ourselves in a more favorable setup for snow as we move through the week. Nothing real significant is forecast for the moment, but it's nice to see the high pressure moving out. |
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GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS |
See or trigger an avalanche? I'd like to hear about it. You can reach me on my mobile: 801-824-0305, or shoot me an email: grant@utahavalanchecenter.org Observers may choose to remain anonymous if they wish.
I will update this forecast by 7am Saturday January 2nd. |
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. |
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This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:
The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list. |
