Skyline Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Grant Helgeson

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Slopes above treeline facing N, NE, E, SE & S have a MODERATE danger rating (meaning human triggered avalanches are possible.)  Pockets of CONSIDERABLE hazard exist where fresh wind slabs have developed.  Slopes in the trees facing E, SE & S have a MODERATE danger rating.  All other slopes have a LOW danger rating.  Don't be tricked by the moderate danger rating.  While our snowpack is slowly gaining strength, it is still possible to trigger a deep hard slab avalanche in shady, high elevation N-NE-E facing Aspects.  As the wind continues to work with the new snow, fresh wind slabs will develop on NE, E, SE & S Aspects.  Tweak small test slopes to see how the new snow is behaving before venturing into bigger terrain.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Travel conditions have greatly improved and folks are out there getting after it.  The big warm up that began Tuesday has really helped to strengthen and settle our snowpack.  We now have a good base in place.  While it's easy to get around now, stay cautious.  The winds have been steady out of the West all week at 30 mph.  This has once again scoured the Westerly aspects, and has the East aspects loaded in pockets further down slope then usual.  Watch for pillow like features, and stay off of them.  These are the places you are likely to trigger an avalanche.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Friday’s bluebird morning and favorable lighting allowed me to have a good look around.  It looks like we had a healthy natural cycle that occurred over the weekend after our Christmas storm left town.  We had some nice big natural avalanches, like this one that pulled out most of Staker ridge.  It's no surprise to see these avalanches pulling out on E facing aspects near the rocks.   What is surprising is that folks high marking on this same face did not trigger anything.  If a slope has avalanched, it's generally a good idea to give it some time and respect.  Remember, the biggest clue that a slope is capable of avalanching is, recent avalanches on that slope!  All that aside, the natural cycle is done, and nothing seems to have moved in the New Year.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Prior to Friday's storm, the surface of our snowpack was a potpourri of wind skins & melt freeze crusts.  We've now added 6" of light density blower on top, with winds steady out of the W-NW.  This new snow will be blown onto our lee E-SE aspects forming sensitive wind slabs.  Even in sheltered areas, the new snow will need some time to bond to the existing pack before it's good to go.  Avoid fresh drifts & be sure to tweak small test slopes to see how the new snow is behaving before venturing into the big stuff.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

While the snowpack is certainly gaining strength, it is still possible to trigger one of the persistent hard slabs out there.  Here's the description of the suspect to be on the lookout for: high elevation, wind loaded, N, NE & E (shady) aspects that did not release during the natural cycle.  You're most likely to trigger one of these slabs where the snowpack is thin.  (think rocky)  If you do trigger one of these deep slabs, it will be a devastating, life altering kind of mistake. 


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

We picked up about 6" of nice light density fluff out of Fridays storm which should help to freshen things up for the weekend.  The wind elected to forego sleeping, and instead worked throughout the storm blowing out of the W-NW at a steady 25 mph.  This has formed a fesh wind slab that will be deepest on E-SE aspects, at least for this morning.  The storm will clear out about lunch time on Saturday.  Then our strong westerlies will pick back up, and it will get mighty cold, dropping to -12 overnight.  A fresh system will arrive Monday afternoon and will likely stay overnight.  Storm totals are a bit shaky, but another 6" is not out of the question.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

See an avalanche?  Get a whoomph?  I'm always interested in your observations.  Shoot me an email @: grant@utahavalanchecenter.org or call me on my cell: 406-370-1337.  Your information could help to save other riders lives.  Thanks!

Big thanks to Steve Cote & Darce Trotter for all their help!  Their observations/information has been incredible!

Due to budget cuts we are only able to produce an advisory that is updated each Saturday morning.  Keep in mind that conditions change dramatically and that information may not be relevant for later in the week.

Want to schedule an avalanche awareness talk?  Contact me for details.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.