US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Good morning, this Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory for the Wasatch Plateau/Manti Skyline Region, including, but not limited to Ephraim, Huntington and Fairview Canyons. This advisory is brought to you through a partnership of Utah State Parks and the USFS. Today is Saturday, January 27th, 2007 at 6:30 a.m. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

If you have been out in the backcountry, please post your OBSERVATIONS with us!

To check out past advisories, go to ARCHIVE.

To check out the current weather, go to our WEATHER page.

For more information on snowmobiling on the Skyline, click this LINK

General Conditions:

A weak storm system will dropping south into the Great Plains and another weak system along the west cost will brush Utah today and tonight. These systems will not be strong enough to clear out the inversions and high pressure will return on Sunday. You will enjoy good recycled powder conditions up on the Skyline today in places that still hold snow and that has not been affected by the sun. North and East aspects will be your best bet to find this recycled powder, while the warm weather that visited the Skyline this past work week will have put sun-crusts on South-West Aspects, or, burned the snow off completely in lower elevations and made for some very thin cover in the upper S-W elevations. Ground hazards will be more dangerous today than avalanches…be careful out there.

Mountain Weather:

Today: Mostly cloudy. Snow. Probability of measurable precipitation 30 percent. West wind 8 mph. High 29.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow then slight chance of snow showers. Snow accumulation 1 inch. Probability of measurable precipitation 30 percent. Northeast wind 14 mph. Low 14.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 9 mph. High 25.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Southwest wind 8 mph. Low 11.

Weather Station/ Location	Snow Depth (HS): in./cm	New Snow (HN) in./cm	7:00 a.m. Temp (F)	Current Observations: Wind, 48 hour snow
Mammoth/Cottonwood SNOTEL (8,800’):	23.2”	0”	24	Warmer in mtns than valleys
Seeley Creek SNOTEL (10,000’):	20.8”	0”	21	Winds out of the W at 7 gust to 10
Skyline Wind Site (SH 31):	Wx down	Wx down	Wx down	Wx down
Miller Flat Trailhead:	25”	~	~	Good trail riding

Avalanche Conditions: (Click here for the International Avalanche Danger Scale)

Conditions have been very benign, with the lack of any new snowfall and warm temperatures. Recent High pressure and the associated cold, clear nights have been breaking down the upper layer of the snowpack resulting in a condition called Neear Surface Faceting. When this process occurs water vapor moves upward through the snowpack because of the temperature difference (or gradient) between the temperature of the snow near the surface and the air temperature. Water vapor flows through the upper part of the snowpack causing a metamorphic process in the snow crystals called Faceting. These faceted crystals form a weak, sugary layer that will not hold the weight of a new load of snow. In the lower half of this snow pack, faceted grains exist as well due to similar processes earlier in the year. We have a bed surface, weak layers(s) and the terrain for avalanches to slide upon. What we need now for a LARGE avalanche cycle is a significant load. It appears that we do not have a weather maker for this load to develop and as a result the Avalanche Danger for today will be LOW. Travel will generally be safe, although be aware of areas of hard wind slabs on leeward sides of slopes and ridges on SE-E aspects. We spied another triggered hard slab yesterday in Lake Canyon.