US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Good morning, this Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory for the Wasatch Plateau/Manti Skyline Region, including, but not limited to Ephraim, Huntington and Fairview Canyons. This advisory is brought to you through a partnership of Utah State Parks and the USFS. Today is Saturday, January 13^th, 2007 at 7:30 a.m.

If you have been out in the backcountry, please post your OBSERVATIONS with us!

To check out past advisories, go to ARCHIVE.

To check out the current weather, go to our WEATHER page.

For more information on snowmobiling on the Skyline, click this LINK

WE ARE TEACHING A FREE A.I.A.R.E. (AMEREICAN INSTITUTE FOR AVALANCHE, REASEARCH AND EDUCATION) CLASS UP ON THE SKYLINE!

THE CLASS IS SCHEDULED FOR JANUARY 26^TH-28^TH. CALL 435-636-3363 TO SIGN UP.

General Conditions:

The large precipitation producer that was supposed to impact the Manti-Skyline missed to the south. The only impact the region felt was the very cold temperatures that were left in its wake. Mammoth/Cottonwood and Seeley Creek SNOTEL sites both register temperature below 0 this morning at 6:00 am. The Skyline could have picked up 1”-2” in the past 24 hours. We are under a WINTER STORM WARNING for the Manti-Skyline/Wasatch Plateau. The snow pack on the Manti-Skyline is primed for some serious avalanche activity, read on to the Avalanche Conditions for more information.

Mountain Weather:

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST SATURDAY..

Today: Snow showers. Snow accumulation 1 inch. Probability of measurable precipitation 80 percent. West wind 9 mph. High 8.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers in the evening. Snow accumulation 1 inch. Probability of measurable precipitation 40 percent. Northwest wind 6 mph. Low -5.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Probability of measurable precipitation 20 percent. Northwest wind 7 mph. High 9.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. North wind 5 mph. Low -4.

Weather Station/ Location	Snow Depth (HS): in./cm	New Snow (HN) in./cm	7:00 a.m. Temp (F)	Current Observations: Wind, 48 hour snow
Mammoth/Cottonwood SNOTEL (8,800’):	24”	1.5”	-2.0	COLD!!!!
Seeley Creek SNOTEL (10,000’):	20.5”	2”	-7.0	Winds out of the WNW at 12 gust to 16
Skyline Wind Site (SH 31):	Wx down	Wx down	Wx down	Wx down
Miller Flat Trailhead:	23”	2”	~	COLD!!!!

Avalanche Conditions: (Click here for the International Avalanche Danger Scale)

Thursday’s field day gave us some clues on how unstable the snow is on the ground before this storm. We triggered a HS-AS-R5-D2-O/G (Hard slab, skier triggered, 100% of avalanche path, enough to injure or kill you) avalanche on an East facing slope at 10,000’. It was 300’ wide, broke way back on the ridge (started at 22 degrees) and the fracture line was 1’-2.5’ deep. It ran farther than expected and wider than expected. An interesting fact: we triggered it at the shallowest location, not the deepest. We also observed 3 other natural avalanches on the same aspects, East & Southeast. For those of you going into alpine bowls this weekend, READ: These hard slabs are out there, period.

The snow pack on North aspects is weak, uncohesive, sugar snow that will be reactive if we get significant snow fall out of this current storm. South aspects have breakable sun-crusts in sheltered areas while your west aspects have been stripped by recent winds.

The BOTTOM LINE for today will be an AVALANCHE DANGER of MODERATE on North-Southeast aspects where recent wind slabs have been deposited. Be especially careful on steep wind-loaded slopes above tree-line on East-Southeast aspects. As more snow falls and wind blows, expect the Avalanche Danger to increase.