US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction:

Good morning, this is Dave Medara with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory for the Wasatch Plateau/Manti Skyline Region, including, but not limited to Ephraim, Huntington and Fairview Canyons. This advisory is brought to you through a partnership of Utah State Parks and the USFS. Today is Sunday, February 19th, 2006, at 8:00 am.

To check out past advisories, go to ARCHIVE. To check out the current, go to our WEATHER page.

NEW LINK! If you have been out in the backcountry, please post your OBSERVATIONS with us! If you would like to see some SNOWPIT profiles, click the link…and more to come.

Current Conditions:

There is a snow advisory in effect until 6 PM tonight. Cold temperatures again for the Skyline today. At 7:00 a.m. it is 10 degrees at the Seeley Creek snotel site. It looks like 5” -7” of snow has fallen on the Skyline overnight, making for some great powder conditions today overlying a supportable, stable winter snowpack. The wind has been blowing out of the west and south has created some monster cornices on downwind aspects…some of which have failed catastrophically. Read on to the avalanche conditions for more. Today you can expect more snow and Cornice formation up high, especially on North facing slopes

Click the links below to find out up to date information at these weather stations on the Skyline.

Mammoth/Cottonwood SNOTEL (8,800’): 57.5” of snow on the ground. It is 16 degrees out at 7:00 am.

Seeley Creek SNOTEL (10,000’): There is 40” of snow on the ground. It is 10 degrees out at 7:00 am.

There is 61” of snow on the ground at the Miller Flat Trailhead.

Mountain Weather:

Today...Occasional snow. Accumulation 4-8 inches. Highs at 8000 feet 15-20.

Tonight...Snow likely. Accumulation 1-3 inches. Lows at 8000 feet zero to 5 above. Chance of snow 70 percent.
Presidents Day...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs at 8000 feet 15-20.
Monday Night...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows at 8000 feet near zero.

Avalanche Conditions: (Click here for the International Avalanche Danger Scale)

Friday we were able to observe some monster cornice failures up on the Skyline. Some of the chunks are as big as a bus. The snow on the ground is generally stable, except for the fact that we have some weak snow buried under the new snow from this past week. This weak layer of faceted snow grains is only 12-15” under the snow surface, and the weight of last night’s new snow may be enough to cause this layer to become reactive. There was a clean shear on this layer of buried crystals (bad news) and the only thing lacking in the avalanche equation was enough weight on the layer. We are right on the threshold of having that weight now. On the positive side, winds have been light, primarily out of the south. As we get some wind slab to develop on top of these areas, this weak layer will become more unstable.

For today the BOTTOM LINE is going to be CONSIDERABLE up on the Skyline. Be especially careful of large overhanging cornices and areas that have developed shallow wind slabs on North-Easterly aspects. These wind slabs will be very localized and found at the very top of starting zones.

Have fun out there! You can also check us out at 7:30 AM on radio station KMTI on Saturday Mornings.

Basic Avalanche Awareness and Field Day
*The advisory is also available via recorded message at (800) 648-7433