US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

 Introduction:

Good Morning, this is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory for the Wasatch Plateau/Manti Skyline Region, including, but not limited to Ephraim, Huntington and Fairview Canyons. This advisory is brought to you through a partnership of Utah State Parks and the USFS. Today is Sunday, December 18th, 2005 at 7:45 a.m.

To check out past advisories, go to ARCHIVE. To check out the current, go to our WEATHER page.

Current Conditions:

The precipitation band has increased to include the Manti-Skyline and it looks like we have a chance of snow through Monday. The SNOTEL sites are saying we received 1”-2” of snow since the early morning. Winds today will generally be light out of the west at 8-10 mph. Conditions are great to be snowmobiling, snow-kiting or backcountry skiing. Miller Flat has two feet of snow on the ground and the road is snow-packed/icy in a couple spots.

Click the links below to find out up to date information at these weather stations on the Skyline.

Mammoth/Cottonwood SNOTEL (8,800’): 20.3” of snow on the ground, 19 degrees at 6:00 a.m.

Seeley Creek SNOTEL (10,000’): There is 19.0” of snow on the ground, 19 degrees at 6:00 a.m.

Mountain Weather:

SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY
Today...Snow in the morning...Then a chance of snow in the afternoon. Accumulation 1-4 inches. Highs at 8000 feet in the lower 20s.
Tonight...Snow likely. Accumulation 3-6 inches. Lows at 8000 feet 15-20. Chance of snow 70 percent.
Monday...Snow likely in the morning...Then a chance of snow in the afternoon. Accumulation 2-5 inches. Highs at 8000 feet around 30. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Avalanche Conditions: (Click here for the International Avalanche Danger Scale)

There hasn’t been a natural avalanche or triggered avalanche in over 12 days. North through East aspects are still where most of the snow (and powder) has accumulated on the ground, while most west aspects have been wind damaged and scoured off. Southwest-South-Southeast aspects have a 1-2 cm thick sun crust on the surface. For today and until some significant weather event occurs, the BOTTOM LINE is going to be a danger rating of LOW in all areas of the Manti-Skyline. If we receive more snow than we are forecasted to receive, the avalanche danger could rise to MODERATE in response to the new snow load, especially on North through East aspects.

Looking into the future, it appears the weather we have had for the past 12 days is effecting the upper snow pack. We have sun-crusts on South aspects while on North aspects we are seeing some near-surface-faceting. These near-surface-facets are forming from the temperature changes throughout the day and night. What we need to know about these crystals is that they are not bonding very well with the snow layer below it. When we do get some significant snow, this layer might be the weak layer that an avalanche will fail on. The snow may be safe now, but when we do get some more, it is time to re-access!

*The advisory is also available via recorded message at (800) 648-7433