US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

 Introduction:

Good Morning, this is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory for the Wasatch Plateau/Manti Skyline Region, including, but not limited to Ephraim, Huntington and Fairview Canyons. This advisory is brought to you through a partnership of Utah State Parks and the USFS. Today is Saturday, December 17th, 2005 at 7:30 a.m.

To check out past advisories, go to ARCHIVE. To check out the current, go to our WEATHER page.

Current Conditions:

An upper level trough from the North has stalled out in Southern Idaho today. Any new snow will be limited to the far Northern mountains of Utah. The Manti-Skyline will see mostly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the 20’s. Winds will be out of the west/southwest at an average of 10 mph, gusting occasionally to 20. Conditions are great to be snowmobiling, snow-kiting or backcountry skiing. Miller Flat has two feet of snow on the ground and the road is snow-packed/icy in a couple spots.

Click the links below to find out up to date information at these weather stations on the Skyline.

Mammoth/Cottonwood SNOTEL (8,800’): 19.4” of snow on the ground, 17degrees at 6:00 a.m.

Seeley Creek SNOTEL (10,000’): There is 17.4” of snow on the ground, 14 degrees at 6:00 a.m.

Mountain Weather:

Today...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs at 8000 feet near 20.
Tonight...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows at 8000 feet 5 to 10 above.
Sunday...Partly cloudy in the morning...Then mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs at 8000 feet in the mid 20s.

Avalanche Conditions: (Click here for the International Avalanche Danger Scale)

This weeks observations up on the Skyline leads me to believe that the snow pack, currently, is stable. The heavy snow we received two weekends ago has set up into a strong layer of snow. There hasn’t been a natural avalanche or triggered avalanche in over 11 days. North through East aspects are still where most of the snow (and powder) has accumulated on the ground, while most west aspects have been wind damaged and scoured off. Southwest-South-Southeast aspects have a 1-2 cm thick sun crust on the surface. For today and until some significant weather event occurs, the BOTTOM LINE is going to be a danger rating of LOW in all areas of the Manti-Skyline.

Looking into the future, it appears the weather we have had for the past 10 days is effecting the upper snow pack. We have sun-crusts on South aspects while on North aspects we are seeing some near-surface-faceting. These near-surface-facets are forming from the temperature changes throughout the day and night. What we need to know about these crystals is that they are not bonding very well with the snow layer below it. When we do get some significant snow, this layer might be the weak layer that an avalanche will fail on. The snow may be safe now, but when we do get some more, it is time to re-access!

*The advisory is also available via recorded message at (800) 648-7433