US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

              Snow, Weather and Avalanche Advisory

                       

             

 Introduction:

  This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory for the Wasatch Plateau/Manti Skyline Region, including, but not limited to Ephraim, Huntington and Fairview Canyons.  This advisory is brought to you through a partnership of Utah State Parks and the USFS.  Today is Monday, February 21st, 2005 at 7:30 am.  

 

This advisory will expire in 24 hours and will be updated next weekend. 

 

Current Conditions:

            It appears that the meat of the storm missed the Skyline, the jet stream split its flow and went around!   Limited snowfall amounts will keep the machines and skiers affecting the buried sun-crust in most areas and there are a few inches of snow that will keep the conditions fresh.  Unfortunately, the Mammoth/Cottonwood SNOTEL and the Seeley Creek SNOTEL stakes stopped working Saturday at 4:00 p.m., giving us no exact snow totals or current temperatures.  Hopefully they will be fully operational sometime today.  There will be increased traffic on the Skyline for President’s Weekend, please drive defensively and park courteously. 

 

Mammoth/Cottonwood SNOTEL:  At least 50” of snow on the ground.

Miller Flat Trailhead:  There is at least 54” of snow on the ground.

 

Mountain Weather:

There is a threat of snow every day this week, hopefully some of the moisture will fall in the form of snow. 

President’s Day:  50% chance of snow.  Partly cloudy.  High in the low 30’s.

Monday night:  Mostly cloudy.  Snow likely.  Accumulations of an 1” possible.  Low near 20.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday:  Mostly cloudy.  Snow likely.  Accumulations possible.  High near 30.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

Avalanche Conditions:

                The lack of significant snow has kept the avalanche danger from rising in the past couple of days.  There have been reports of tender cornices up North, and you can expect to find some tender cornices on the Skyline today as well.  What I am concerned about today is the weak layers that were present in the snow pack before this weekend.  The upper third of the snow pack is prone to fail under the weight of a snowmobile, confirmed by two avalanches this past week that were started by a snowmobile trigger. 

The Bottom Line is an avalanche danger of CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes on North through East aspects and around recently deposited cornices.  For the rest of the Skyline, I am going to rate the avalanche danger at MODERATE.  Expose only one person to the slope at a time, start in safe zones and practice with your avalanche transceivers!