US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Snow, Weather and Avalanche Advisory

Introduction:

Happy New Year! This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory for the Wasatch Plateau/Manti Skyline Region, including, but not limited to Huntington and Fairview Canyons. This advisory is brought to you through a partnership of Utah State Parks and the USFS. Today is Sunday, January 2nd, 2005 at 8:00 am.

This advisory will expire in 24 hours, and will be updated on next weekend.

To see some of the Manti Skyline’s past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

We are booking basic avalanche awareness classes all over the Skyline region and have our first AIARE Level I Avalanche Course. The Level I American Institute for Avalanche, Research and Education class is a three day course with an emphasis on field days. Call (435) 636-3363 to sign up for this FREE course being held in Mt. Pleasant. The January 14^th thru the 16^th class is full, we are taking students for a February 4^th thru 6^th class currently. Limit of 18 students.

Current Conditions:

The Skyline is between storms currently, with snow in the forecast thru Thursday. We received over six inches in the last 48 hours, with the chance of more snow in the forecast for the next five days. The Mammoth/Cottonwood SNOTEL site is reporting 32” of snow on the ground and a temperature of 8 degrees this morning. Plenty of wind out of the SE-SW has moved snow around on the Skyline and will affect the avalanche danger today. You will be able to find plenty of powder around Gooseberry and Miller Flat Reservoir Trailhead. Today will be a good day to go trail riding and play in the meadows, reserving the steeper terrain when the avalanche danger decreases.

Your first hazard for today is going to be the road conditions, which are snow packed and at times quite congested. Please drive defensively!

Mountain Weather:

Today: Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Highs in the upper 20’s, mid-thirties.

Sunday Night: Snow likely with 1-4 inches expected. Low temperature will be around 15-20 degrees. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday: Snow. Accumulations of 1-4 inches expected. High near 30.

Avalanche Conditions:

Winds have been strong enough to transport the 12” storm onto leeward sides of ridges and slopes, making cornices tender and distributing a good amount of snow onto NW-NE aspects. Most avalanches will fail between the old snow/new snow interface, with some slopes failing on a buried surface hoar layer. Natural avalanches occur during or just after a significant storm. The snow has had some time to settle, and today visibility will give you vantages of failed cornices and slopes. The natural avalanche cycle has calmed down a bit, and today will be the day that triggered avalanches will be a concern. For today, I am going to rate the avalanche danger at CONSIDERABLE, especially on slopes greater than 35 degrees and on NE-NW aspects. A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger means that natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanche are probable. Cornices are going to tender today and break further back than expected. If you do venture out to steeper terrain, you better be very knowledgeable of avalanches and be wearing avalanche beacons, probes and shovels. Start with smaller, moderate slopes and test cornices in areas where the consequences are limited to check the stability of slopes. And remember, always take your clues from Mother Nature…if there are avalanches on one aspect, steepness and elevation, slopes with the same characteristics that have yet to slide should be considered suspect.