US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest
Snow, Weather and Avalanche Advisory
Introduction:
Good Morning! This is Max
Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and
mountain weather advisory for the Wasatch Plateau/Manti Skyline Region,
including, but not limited to Huntington and Fairview Canyons. This advisory is brought to you through a
partnership of Utah State Parks and the USFS. Today is Friday, December 30th,
2004 at 7:30 am.
This advisory will expire in 24 hours, and will be
updated on New Years Day.
To see some of the Manti Skylines past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.
We are booking basic avalanche awareness classes all over the
Skyline region and have our first AIARE Level I Avalanche Course. The Level I American Institute for
Avalanche, Research and Education class is a three day course with an emphasis
on field days. Call (435) 636-3363 to
sign up for this FREE course being held in Mt. Pleasant. The January 14th thru the 16th class is full, we are taking students
for a February 4th thru 6th class currently. Limit of 18 students.
Current Conditions:
We are under a WINTER STORM WARNING THRUOGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MANTI-SKYLINE DRIVE REGION. There
will be periods of heavy snow and decreased visibility is expected. So far out of this storm we have received
six inches snow. It is currently 23
degrees out at the Mammoth/Cottonwood SNOTEL site, with 27of snow on the
ground. The Miller Flat Reservoir
Trailhead has 29 of snow on the ground.
The parking lots were full yesterday up on the Skyline, and numerous
shuttles were being run for snowboarders in Fairview Canyon. Your first hazard for today is going to be
the road conditions, which are snow packed and at times quite congested. Please drive defensively!
Mountain Weather:
Today: Breezy. Snow.
Accumulations of 5-10 expected.
High in the low 30s. Winds will
be out of the SW at 15-25 mph, with higher averages on exposed ridges.
Tonight: Breezy. Snow.
Accumulations of 8-15 expected.
Low 10-15 degrees. Winds will be
out of the SW at 15-25 mph.
New Years Day: 70% chance of
snow, with an additional 2 of snow expected.
High in the upper 20s. Winds
will be out of the West at 20-30 mph, decreasing to 15-25 mph in the
afternoon.
Avalanche Conditions:
Observers
yesterday reported 1-2 of snow drifts in some parts of the Skyline yesterday
and cornices are building at an incredible rate. I was able to get some sizable portions of cornices to fail
yesterday under a skiers weight, and they were failing farther back than
expected. The first wave of snow left a
heavy wind slab layer in some places, its interface with the snow under it is
poor. Natural
Avalanche cycles occur during or just after a significant snowfall event,
and today we are expecting anywhere from 12-24. With winds strong enough to transport snow onto leeward sides of
ridges and slopes, we are sitting at the doorstep of a potentially large
avalanche cycle. For today, I am going
to rate the avalanche danger at CONSIDERABLE
this morning on all aspects
and elevations, with the danger level rising in response to more snow and wind. The wind will be strong enough and snow deep
enough to affect all areas. It is time
to let Mother Nature play with avalanche terrain. Today and tomorrow will be good times to stay on designated
trails and in powder fields well away from the steep slopes. If you do venture out to steeper terrain,
you better be wearing avalanche beacons, probes and shovels. Watch out for tender cornices and
wind-loaded slopes, and expose only one person to the hazard at a time.