Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

 

Introduction:

Good Morning!  This is Evan Stevens with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory for the Wasatch Plateau/Manti Skyline Region, including, but not limited to Huntington and Fairview Canyons.  This advisory is brought to you through a partnership of Utah State Parks and the USFS.  Today is Wednesday, December 29th, 2004 at 7:30 a.m.

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

 

General Conditions:

Although our mountain weather stations aren’t reporting much new snow (only 1-2” so far), we are still under a WINTER STORM WARNING for 1 to 2 feet of new snow and strong winds.  We are anticipating conditions changing dramatically as the day wears on.   For now, you can expect temperatures hovering in the upper 20’s with strong winds out of the SW at 20-30mph, blowing plenty of the new snow around.  Conditions range from supportable on southerly aspects to punchy on the sheltered and shady slopes, and a mix of old hard slabs and avalanche debris on wind exposed shady aspects.  Currently we have about

 

Current Conditions (6 a.m.):

Miller Flat (8,800’):  26” of settled snow on the ground with 1” of new snow.  It is about 29 degrees right now.

Top of the Skyline:  40-45” of settled snow on the ground with strong winds out of the SW at 20-30mph.

 

Mountain Weather:

Today: Windy...snow. A chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Accumulation 8-12 inches. Highs at 8000 feet in the lower 30s. Southwest winds 20-30 mph.
Tonight: Windy...snow. Accumulation 3-6 inches. Lows at 8000 feet near 20. Southwest winds 20-30 mph.
Thursday: Breezy. Cloudy with a 60 percent chance of snow. Accumulation 1-4 inches. Highs at 8000 feet in the lower 30s. Southwest winds 15-25 mph.

 

Avalanche Conditions:

All of the danger that we have been anticipating when we get our next big storm is now knocking on our door.  Although as I write this at 7am we do not have nearly enough new snow to increase the danger rating, the snow is forecasted to kick in hard and windy.  Based on our extremely weak snowpack that is on the ground right now, which is dominated by weak, sugary faceted snow at the surface and at the bottom of the pack, the danger rating should rise steadily as the new snow piles up.  Overnight winds will have moved around whatever snow was available for transport and created some small shallow hard slabs on any exposed slope giving us a current danger rating of MODERATE on exposed slopes steeper than 35 degrees.  However, the new snow and winds will affect almost every slope and aspect bumping the danger rating to an overall CONSIDERABLE if not HIGH as the day wears on.  Natural avalanches could be possible by the end of the day, so remember your safe travel techniques; visibility will be limited so know where you are going, today is not the day for surprises!  Every elevation and aspect will have it’s own dangers today:  low to mid elevations are purely a weak sugary snowpack right now, and a big new load will cause slopes in these areas to fail.  Exposed slopes, whether they have a crusty surface on southerly aspects or old hard slabs and weak sugary snow at the surface on northerly aspects, will see poor bonding to the new snow and will also be wind loaded heavily.  Play it safe today and tomorrow!