Snow, Weather, and Avalanche Advisory

 

 

Introduction:

Good Morning!  This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory for the Wasatch Plateau/Manti Skyline Region, including, but not limited to Huntington and Fairview Canyons.  This advisory is brought to you through a partnership of Utah State Parks and the USFS.  Today is Sunday, December 19th, 2004 at 7:30 a.m.

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

 

Education:

 Be on the lookout for avalanche awareness classes near you!  We will be teaching our first AIARE Level I Avalanche Course on the Skyline this year, if you are interested, you can contact Max Forgensi at 435.636.3363.  It will be a educational three day course with an emphasis on field instruction.  Call to sign up!

 

Current Conditions:

            Another beautiful, warm sunny day is on tap for today up on the Skyline!  It will be tough to find any powder close to the Skyline Drive road anymore, not only due to the amount of tracks in the area, but how warm and sunny it has been for over a week.  Your best bet for finding untracked powder is going to be in shady, north-facing drainages.   Be careful though, large stumps and logs are still able to give you some trouble, and I found out first hand yesterday.  Currently there is 22” at the Mammoth/Cottonwood SNOTEL stake and 24” at the Miller Flat Reservoir Trailhead.  At 7:00 a.m. the temperature is 17 degrees on top of the Plateau.  Expect breakable crusts on all aspects and elevations, except for in the shaded trees. 

 

Mountain Weather:

The next best chance for snow will be Tuesday and Wednesday, keep your fingers crossed. 

Today:  Sunny.  High @ 8,000’ near 40. 

Sunday Night:  Colder.  Low near 10-15.  Clear skies turning to partly cloudy. 

Monday:  Breezy.  Colder.  Partly cloudy.  High near 30.  Winds will be out of the west at 15-25 mph, increasing in the afternoon to 20-30 mph. 

 

Avalanche Conditions:

            Yesterday was an eye-opener in more ways than one.  The biggest eye-opener was the extent of the most recent natural avalanche cycle and what in the snow pack failed.  Most avalanches on the Skyline were confined to N-E aspects, although there was one on a NW aspect in Fairview Canyon.  The crown lines of these avalanches had a thickness from 12” to 8 feet.  The weak layer that most of these avalanches failed on was buried surface hoar.  For those steep, NE-NW aspects that didn’t slide yet, chances are they will when those slopes get another significant load.  Buried surface hoar is a layer that is very persistent and reactive. 

            What is a significant load?  Another 12” of snow?  A snowmobile high-marking?  Although the natural avalanche cycle is over for now, that buried surface hoar is still lurking out there.  For today I am going to rate the avalanche danger at MODERATE on NE-NW aspects with slope angles greater than 35 degrees.  Remember, those slopes that did slide have failed already, so if we do get a few inches this work week, they will be a safer place to recreate.