Snow,
Weather, and Avalanche Advisory
Introduction:
Good Morning! This is
Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your with your
avalanche and mountain weather advisory for the Wasatch Plateau/Manti Skyline
Region, including, but not limited to Huntington and Fairview Canyons. This advisory is brought to you through
a partnership of Utah State Parks and the USFS. Today is Sunday, December 19th, 2004 at 7:30 a.m.
To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.
Education:
Be on the lookout for avalanche awareness classes near you! We will be teaching our first AIARE
Level I Avalanche Course on the Skyline this year, if you are interested, you
can contact Max Forgensi at 435.636.3363.
It will be a educational three day course with an emphasis on field
instruction. Call to sign up!
Current Conditions:
Another
beautiful, warm sunny day is on tap for today up on the Skyline! It will be tough to find any powder
close to the Skyline Drive road anymore, not only due to the amount of tracks
in the area, but how warm and sunny it has been for over a week. Your best bet for finding untracked
powder is going to be in shady, north-facing drainages. Be careful though, large stumps
and logs are still able to give you some trouble, and I found out first hand
yesterday. Currently there is 22”
at the Mammoth/Cottonwood SNOTEL stake and 24” at the Miller Flat Reservoir
Trailhead. At 7:00 a.m. the
temperature is 17 degrees on top of the Plateau. Expect breakable crusts on all aspects and elevations,
except for in the shaded trees.
Mountain Weather:
The next best chance for snow will be Tuesday and Wednesday, keep
your fingers crossed.
Today: Sunny. High @ 8,000’ near 40.
Sunday Night: Colder. Low near 10-15. Clear skies turning to partly
cloudy.
Monday: Breezy. Colder. Partly cloudy.
High near 30. Winds will be
out of the west at 15-25 mph, increasing in the afternoon to 20-30 mph.
Avalanche Conditions:
Yesterday was an
eye-opener in more ways than one.
The biggest eye-opener was the extent of the most recent natural
avalanche cycle and what in the snow pack failed. Most avalanches on the Skyline were confined to N-E aspects,
although there was one on a NW aspect in Fairview Canyon. The crown lines
of these avalanches had a thickness from 12” to 8 feet. The weak layer that most of these
avalanches failed on was buried surface hoar. For those steep, NE-NW aspects that didn’t slide yet,
chances are they will when those slopes get another significant load. Buried surface hoar is a layer that is
very persistent and reactive.
What
is a significant load? Another 12”
of snow? A snowmobile
high-marking? Although the natural
avalanche cycle is over for now, that buried surface hoar is still lurking out
there. For today I am going to
rate the avalanche danger at MODERATE on NE-NW aspects with slope angles greater than 35 degrees. Remember, those slopes that did
slide have failed already, so if we do get a few inches this work week,
they will be a safer place to recreate.