Wasatch
Cache National Forest
In partnership with: The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Forecast Center, Utah Department of
Public Safety Division of Comprehensive Emergency Management, Salt Lake County,
and Utah State Parks
Avalanche advisory
SUNDAY. November
9, 2003 7:30 am
Good morning, this is Drew
Hardesty with the Forest Service Utah Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather
advisory. Today is Sunday, November
09, 2003, and it’s 7:30 a.m.
Current Conditions:
Skies are mostly cloudy this
morning with balmy temperatures near freezing at most mountain locations. In the hours since midnight, the winds along the upper ridgelines have picked up
out of the south and southeast and are in blowing 20-30mph. Turning and riding conditions remain good, if
not a little more hazardous than early in the week, as our snowpack has settled
out to about 1-2’. You’ll find the best
conditions on north and northeast slopes above about 8500’; sunny slopes and
lower elevations are well crusted. Areas
underlain by grassy slopes are the best choice for turns, and snow machiners
will want to stay on roads or smooth trails.
Avalanche Conditions:
The avalanche conditions the
past few days can be summed up by something my old grandpa in Kentucky used to say, “Boy, if nothing’s happening, ain’t nothing gonna happen.” Applied to our snowpack, this generally
refers to avalanches on the macroscale (deep slab
instabilities notwithstanding), and not to the snowpack itself on the microscale. While
the snow has remained stable most of the past week, the upper few inches of the
snow has been weakening through recrystalization on
the sunny and shady sides. Fortunately,
the warmer temperatures and cloudy skies the past couple days have offset or
stalled out that rapid growth of surface faceting. Which could be a good thing, because, getting
back to my granddad, something’s about to happen. A storm system should move in by late morning
with possibly 3-6” or more today and another 3-6” or more tonight. Strong southerly winds associated with the
system will load northerly slopes and crossload any
in the lee. With 6” of snow and winds, I’d
expect sensitive wind drifts and cornices in the mid and upper elevations and the
new snow may not bond all that well to the old snow surfaces. More snow arriving than forecasted could
result in more widespread activity. With
the rain/snow line at around 8000’ will result in wet point release activity on
steep slopes at the lower elevations. So it looks like for today and tomorrow,
it’s time to tune up your avalanche skills and avoid any steep slopes with
fresh deposits of windblown snow.
Bottom Line:
The avalanche danger is LOW this morning, but will be
on the rise this afternoon with the expected accumulations and strong winds.
Mountain Weather:
Today’s weather will be dominated by a storm ejected out of an upper
level Low pressure system off the coast of California, bringing snow
and strong winds to the Wasatch. Light snowfall has already
begun and continue throughout the day and into tomorrow, with an optimistic
storm total of about a foot in the Cottonwoods and possibly more in areas
favored by a southerly flow, such as the Park City, Ogden, and Provo area
mountains. As it is a warm storm, the
rain/snow line will start at 8000’ and gradually lower overnight and
tomorrow. 8000’ temperatures will be
just below freezing, with 10,000’ temps in the mid-twenties. Ridgetop winds will
be strong and southerly. For the big
picture, Utah will continue
to be under the influence of the Low as it moves inland early in the week, with
occasional cloudy and showery weather.
The longer range models suggest a drier outlook into mid-November.
General
Information:
If
you are getting into the backcountry, please give us a call and let us know
what you’re seeing, especially if you trigger an avalanche. You can leave a message at 524-5304 or
1-800-662-4140. Or you can e-mail an
observation to uac@avalanche .org, or you can fax an
observation to 801-524-6301.
The
information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely
responsible for its content. This
advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always
occur.
I will
update this advisory Monday morning.
Thanks for calling!
_____________________________________________________________________________
For more detailed weather
information go to our Mountain Weather Advisory
National
Weather Service - Salt Lake City - Snow.
For an explanation of
avalanche danger ratings:
http://www.avalanche.org/usdanger.htm