Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Drew Hardesty for Wednesday - April 11, 2018 - 7:14am
bottom line

The danger is mostly LOW this morning. With a poor refreeze and an overnight blanket of clouds, however, the danger of shallow damp sluffs will rise to MODERATE with today's direct sun and rapidly warming tempratures. Remember that terrain choices either amplify or minimize the risk of an otherwise minor avalanche. There remains an isolated chance of triggering a wet slab avalanche breaking on a deeper weak layer or near the ground - if the crusts become punchy or soft, it's time to get off steep slopes.

*The danger will be on the rise over the next few days with an approaching storm with periods of heavy snowfall, post-frontal winds, and then sunny skies over the weekend.
special announcement

The last regular early morning forecast will be Sunday, April 17th. We will issue updates for the Salt Lake zone with every snowfall through the rest of April.

The Wilderness Medicine Program at the University of Utah is surveying the knowledge of both regular and occasional backcountry users. Please provide your input through this survey. https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/AvalancheSafetySkillsSurvey
current conditions

Skies are mostly cloudy trending clear. Winds are generally light now from the northwest. Mountain temperatures are in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Sadly, the trails heads in the Provo area mountains melted out long ago. It was a tough winter for low elevations snow. Icy, slide for life conditions exist on many steep slopes at the mid and upper elevations.
recent activity

Mark Staples and Mark White joined Woody from UDOT and headed down to Timp on Monday and provided some much needed new information. Check out their full observation HERE.

Recent activity noted:

  1. One recent deep, slab avalanche that occurred during this weekend’s rain in the Cascade Cirque on Timp on a N/NE aspect.
  2. One very small wet loose slide in one of the other UFO bowls on a E aspect
  3. One larger wet loose slide in the apron under the Grunge couloir.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 14 hours
description

Remember that Risk is inherent in mountain travel.

Wet Loose sluffs. With direct sun and warming temperatures, the surface snow will soften and move with provocation on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations. We call these 'push-a-lanches' for obvious reasons as one can scrape and push these damp pieces of snow in steeper terrain.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Wet slabs occurred during the rain on Saturday. The issue and the weak layers near the ground in the Provo area mountains are not gone, rather they are moslty dormant - hidden beneath a strong frozen crust. Avalanching on these deeper weak layers is unlikely. However, if you are finding wet snow beneath the crusts or as the day heats and the crusts are getting punchy, avoid steep slopes. Danger for this problem would be above 9500 at upper elevations mainly on northerlies.

Wind slabs: there may be a few wind drifts along the highest ridge lines near the summits of the peaks.

Cornices are increasingly sensitive with direct sun and warming temperatues. Avoid being on or beneath them.
weather

Skies are mostly-trending partly cloudy with now west to northwesterly winds blowing 10-15mph. Mountain temps will rise to the low 50s at the mid-elevations and near 40 at 10,000'. We'll have just a window of fair weather before we see increasing southwest winds and high level clouds racing ahead of tomorrow's cold Pacific storm. Frontal passage looks to be during the morning commute and orographically favored areas by a northwest flow may see 4-8" by Friday. Moderate to strong post-frontal north to northwest winds are expected at this time. High pressure builds for the weekend with another storm on tap for Monday.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.