Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Evelyn Lees for Sunday - April 1, 2018 - 6:23am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is generally LOW this morning, but may rise to MODERATE with daytime heating. Wet loose sluffs will become easy to trigger on steep slopes when the snow heats. Early starts and early finishes is the springtime mantra.

In steep, upper elevation northerly through easterly facing slopes, shallow wind drifts can be triggered in very isolated places and there remains a very slight chance of triggering a deep slab avalanche. Slopes that are rocky or shallower snowpack, especially terrain that avalanched one or more times this winter, are most suspect.
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current conditions

Skies are mostly clear, with the huge full moon out there. Temperatures are a repeat of yesterday morning – in the upper 30s to low 40s at the low and mid elevations in the Provo area mountains. The snow surface refreeze will be marginal and very short lived at these elevations this morning. . The westerly winds are averaging 10 to 15 mph at the mid elevations, with the high peaks to the north averaging to 25 mph.

The snowpack remains grim at the lower elevations in the Provo area mountains, and access is difficult as many of the trailheads are melted out. Tibble Fork is bare dirt, Aspen Grove has dropped to 5" of snow (in the shade I suspect) and Timp divide snotel is a shallow 22".

There are widespread icy crusts at the mid and upper elevations, some which may not soften, so be prepared for hard, “slide for life” conditions on many aspects in steep terrain. Ice axes, crampons and ski crampons may be appropriate for steep objectives.
recent activity

Clouds and wind won the battle with the sun yesterday and kept the snow cool, and there were only a few reports of minor wet loose activity.

Of most interest were 3 large slides off of Timpanogos – timing unknown. Timp photos below: Dave Martin. The NE side of Box Elder also has a huge crown – again, timing unknown.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Clear skies and lots of direct sun are in the forecast today, so the snow’s overnight refreeze will be shorter lived, especially at the low and mid elevations. When the sun hits a slope in full force, the snow surface will heat and wet loose sluffs will become easy to trigger. Once the snow becomes wet and loose, it’s time to get off of and out from under steep slopes, and move to a cooler aspect or lower angle terrain.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The avalanche hazard is generally Low and avalanches are unlikely. But travel in avalanche terrain is never a completely safe game, so watch for the following issues on isolated features:

Wind slabs: there isolated wind drifts that could be triggered by a person – northerly and easterly facing slopes in the highest alpine terrain are the most suspect. Quickly dig down and search for the potential weak layer - loose graupel beneath the surface snow.

Deep slab: If you’re wondering what happened to the Deep Slab avalanche problem, catch up with Mark’s great video below. The issue and the weak layers are not gone, rather they are currently dormant and avalanching on these deeper weak layers is unlikely.

Glide avalanches: full depth releases can happen on slopes with smooth rock slabs beneath
weather

It’s another beautiful warm spring day, with clear skies and lots of sun. Temperatures will warm to near 50°F at 8,000’ today and close to 40°F at 10,000’. The west to northwesterly wind are forecast to average in the 10 to 20 mph range at the mid elevations, and 25 to 35 mph at the highest elevation. Increasing clouds and southwesterly winds overnight and tomorrow, ahead of a small storm that could drop 1 to 3” of snow in the Provo area mountains Monday night. Then back to warm and dry weather through Friday
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.