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Warm and windy before the storm. Hint: grab the Gore-Tex - no, make that PVC - and fish around in the garage for the XTra Tuffs or ditch boots...

Skies are overcast and we'll see some light rain transitioning to snow in the mid-elevations. Mountain temperatures are already in the mid to upper 30s as warm air aloft has kept ridgeline temps nearly on par with yesterday's highs. The winds backed to the southwest and south overnight and are 20-25mph with gusts to 40. Sun, warm temps, and wind have taken their toll on the snow surface conditions and - sad to say - things are gonna get worse before they get better. See Mtn Weather below.

This is a stunning natural avalanche on Timpanogos photographed by the talented photographer and skier Matt Turley (report).With good visibility, it can be viewed from the Heber Valley. It's conjectured to have been triggered Monday by a large natural cornice fall that pried out the deep slab avalanche to the ground, which, in turn, pulled out other avalanches into old snow as it barrelled nearly 3000' down the Giant Staircase toward Timpooneke (or north side of the mountain).

We'll see an initial and perhaps secondary wave of light snow and rain today though it's just a hint of things to come. Sky cover will oscillate from overcast to mostly cloudy with mountain temperatures rising to the upper 20s to low 30s along the higher ridgelines. Mid-elevation temps will rise to the mid-40s. The models, I think, are underdone with their projection of the southerly winds for today and I expect to see winds approaching 25-30mph by the early afternoon.

In any event, we're looking at a warm, wet, and windy event over the next couple of days. Ferocious well describes the southwesterlies tonight, tomorrow, and into early Friday morning. Guidance suggests gusts to 80-90 mph+ along the highest peaks. Heaviest precipitation later Thursday into Friday morning. A rain/snowline of 9-9500' seems (un)reasonable to start before lowering to 6000' or so Friday morning. Some uncertainty with these sub-trop moisture taps, but 1-1.5" snow-water-equivalent seems fair if not underdone. Stay tuned.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.