Advisory: Provo Area Mountains | utahavalanchecenter.org

Avalanche Advisory

Advisory: Provo Area Mountains	Issued by Trent Meisenheimer for Friday - March 16, 2018 - 6:47am

bottom line

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on upper elevation northwest through southeast facing terrain. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Backcountry travel requires careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding and conservative decision-making.

current conditions

Skies are mostly clear this morning and mountain temperatures are in the teens at upper elevations and low twenties at many of the mid canyon trail heads. Winds are currently from the west and well behaved, with speeds of 10-15 mph across the high terrain. A few more inches of new snow fell overnight bringing totals to 6-12" with (0.80" - 1.35" SWE) across the range.

The new storm snow is dense and right-side up, providing excellent conditions on all aspects. Utah Avalanche Center forecaster Craig Gordon reported the new snow was "quite surfy... it's got some body." The sun did play cat and mouse yesterday leaving some sunny aspects with a slight zipper crust and others without.

recent activity

No avalanche activity was reported from the Provo area mountains.

Avalanche Problem 1

type	aspect/elevation	characteristics
		LIKELIHOOD LIKELY UNLIKELY SIZE LARGE SMALL TREND INCREASING DANGER SAME DECREASING DANGER over the next 24 hours
description It's March and the sun angle is high in the sky. It only takes a few minutes of direct sunlight to increase the danger of Wet Loose avalanches. If you're in steep sunlit terrain and there is direct sun on the slope it's time to get out of there - start moving to a more northerly, shaded aspect. Wet slabs avalanches: The overnight cold temperatures have help this problem significantly. However, because of the rain on snow, there remains a chance of triggering a wet slab avalanche on all aspects below about 8,500' in elevation - especially in shallow areas that are wet and soggy. The wet snow characteristics will change with elevation over surprisingly short distances. Avoid terrain traps such as gullies, creek beds and travel below steep road banks, where even a small slide can pile snow up deeply.

type

aspect/elevation

characteristics

LIKELIHOOD

LIKELY

UNLIKELY

SIZE

LARGE

SMALL

TREND

INCREASING DANGER

SAME

DECREASING DANGER

over the next 24 hours

description

It's March and the sun angle is high in the sky. It only takes a few minutes of direct sunlight to increase the danger of Wet Loose avalanches. If you're in steep sunlit terrain and there is direct sun on the slope it's time to get out of there - start moving to a more northerly, shaded aspect.

Wet slabs avalanches: The overnight cold temperatures have help this problem significantly. However, because of the rain on snow, there remains a chance of triggering a wet slab avalanche on all aspects below about 8,500' in elevation - especially in shallow areas that are wet and soggy. The wet snow characteristics will change with elevation over surprisingly short distances. Avoid terrain traps such as gullies, creek beds and travel below steep road banks, where even a small slide can pile snow up deeply.

Avalanche Problem 2

type	aspect/elevation	characteristics
		LIKELIHOOD LIKELY UNLIKELY SIZE LARGE SMALL TREND INCREASING DANGER SAME DECREASING DANGER over the next 24 hours
description In the past 48 hrs. we have seen, rapidly warming temperatures, rain on snow, wind, and heavy snowfall. Honestly, I really have no clue how the buried weak layers will respond to all these changes. However, what I do know: We have buried weak layers in the snowpack that have been reactive in the past, especially to loading events (wind, rain, snow). In the last 48 hrs. we've had up to 1.35" of snow water equivalent (that's a huge load!) to our snowpack. Don't be fooled into thinking there is only 6-12" of snow. It's all about the water weight. The last time these layers were loaded it led to a string of large avalanches and many close calls. You may not see any avalanches - that's the nature of persistent slabs - they are hard to trigger. However, once you find the sweet spot it often takes out all the tracks on the slope. Slab avalanches are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved. Riding slopes less than 30° in steepness, with nothing above or adjacent to you is a sure bet to avoid this dragon.

type

aspect/elevation

characteristics

LIKELIHOOD

LIKELY

UNLIKELY

SIZE

LARGE

SMALL

TREND

INCREASING DANGER

SAME

DECREASING DANGER

over the next 24 hours

description

In the past 48 hrs. we have seen, rapidly warming temperatures, rain on snow, wind, and heavy snowfall. Honestly, I really have no clue how the buried weak layers will respond to all these changes. However, what I do know:

We have buried weak layers in the snowpack that have been reactive in the past, especially to loading events (wind, rain, snow).
In the last 48 hrs. we've had up to 1.35" of snow water equivalent (that's a huge load!) to our snowpack. Don't be fooled into thinking there is only 6-12" of snow. It's all about the water weight.
The last time these layers were loaded it led to a string of large avalanches and many close calls.

You may not see any avalanches - that's the nature of persistent slabs - they are hard to trigger. However, once you find the sweet spot it often takes out all the tracks on the slope. Slab avalanches are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved.

Riding slopes less than 30° in steepness, with nothing above or adjacent to you is a sure bet to avoid this dragon.

weather

This morning we will see mostly clear skies with clouds moving in from our west. Temperatures will warm into the mid to low thirties at 9,000'. Winds will be from the southwest blowing 10-15 mph gusting into the 20's at times. We could see periods of snowfall this afternoon, without much accumulation.

This evening the winds ramp up out of the southwest ahead of another cold front that will swing into the northern mountains Saturday morning. This system looks to favor central and southern Utah. However, for the Provo area 4-8" of new snow is a good bet.

general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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