Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Evelyn Lees for Sunday - March 11, 2018 - 7:06am
bottom line

Areas of CONSIDERABLE hazard exists for triggering a persistent slab avalanche on slopes facing west to north through southeast at the mid and upper elevations. These slides may be triggered remotely, and may break out several hundred feet wide. Warming temperatures today will also lead to a period of wet loose activity on solar aspects, as well as all around the compass at lower elevations.

SAFER riding conditions can be found on low angle northerly terrain with no overhead hazard.

ROOF-ALANCHES are likely and have resulted in fatalities in years past.
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current conditions

Under mostly clear skies, there should have been a descent refreeze overnight at the mid and upper elevations. Temperatures are in the upper 20s to low 30s at the low to mid elevations. Winds are blowing about 10 to 15 mph averages, with the general flow in northern Utah from the southeast. A bit of soft dense remains on northerly facing slopes above about 9,000’, all other slopes are sporting frozen crusts this morning, many breakable, that should soften with daytime heating.

The snow is melting off fast at the lower elevations and on sunny slopes.
recent activity

Warming temperatures this past week led to a significant avalanche cycle in the Provo mountains over the past several days.

If you are heading north, another deep, dangerous slab avalanche was triggered yesterday by a snowmobiler – with a good outcome as no one was caught. First Cornice is on the Midway side of Guardsman Pass. Preliminary information is here.

March 10th First Cornice avalanche, Photos by Colby Zimmerman
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The weak layers faceted layers that formed this winter fromed in November through February remain widespread in the Provo area mountains, and the Provo area mountains have some of the shallowest and weakest snow in northern Utah.

Some of the steep slopes are just waiting for a trigger – and which slopes will slide are variable and unpredictable, but steep mid and upper elevations slopes facing northwest thorough southeasterly are the bulls eye terrain. Especially avoid steep, complex terrain with break overs, shallow rocky spots with a thin snowpack and cliffs and be aware of changes in aspect.

Control work on a wind-loaded east aspect at 11,000' in Mary Ellen Gulch on March 8th resulted in a large, complex avalanche with a crown up to 10'.

A snowmobile triggered slide in Major Evans Gulchon March 6th resulted in a partial burial and close call.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Wet Loose: As the temperatures warm into the 40s and 50s today, the snow will once again become wet and sloppy on most aspects and elevations. The increasing clouds should help prevent natural wet snow slides, but rider triggered wet loose sluffs will be possible on all aspects and elevations except the high northerly facing slopes.

Roof-avalanches: Buildings are starting to shed their winter snow, so look up and avoid travel below steep roofs.

Dave Richards photo:

Cornices often break back further than expected, on to what looks like flat terrain. So give them a wide berth and avoid travel below th
weather

A small storm system crossing southern Utah today is sending clouds our way. Skies should become mostly cloudy today in the Provo area mountains and the southeasterly winds remain light, with speeds in the 5 to 15 mph range. Today’s high temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 50s. The warming trend will continue into Wednesday, with a chance for mountain snow and cooler temperatures late in the week.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.