Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Evelyn Lees for Saturday - March 10, 2018 - 7:11am
bottom line

Areas of CONSIDERABLE hazard exists for triggering a persistent slab avalanche on slopes facing west to north through southeast at the mid and upper elevations. These slides may be triggered remotely, and may break out several hundred feet wide. Warming temperatures today will also lead to a period of wet loose activity on solar aspects, as well as all around the compass at lower elevations.

SAFER riding conditions can be found on low angle northerly terrain with no overhead hazard.

ROOF-ALANCHES are likely and have resulted in fatalities in years past.
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current conditions

Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures are in the upper 20s to mid 30s at the mid elevations in the Provo area mountains this morning and the northwesterly winds are light – 5 to 10 mph averages. If you’re heading to the highest alpine peaks – temperatures are currently in the mid teens, and winds averaging 20 to 30 mph, though expected to decrease later today.

Soft dense powder is rarity…remaining only on northerly facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations. All other aspects are crusted, and may be slow to soften today.
recent activity

Warming temperatures this past week led to a significant avalanche cycle in the Provo mountains over the past several days.

This is in addition to a large natural out of the NE Chute of Elk Point that had been previously reported. Elk Point is a sub-peak of Timpanogos, looming large above Aspen Grove (up the street from Sundance). It likely ran over 3000' and left a sizeable debris pile (pc: Warnick). (Disregard the slope and aspect on the app below. The starting zone was probably 10,600' on a very steep east to northeast face.)

Another recent Provo avalanche, photo: Woody
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

This year’s snowpack is like an old wooden cabin infested with termites. From the outside, it looks solid and it’s hard to tell that some beams are so riddled with termite tunnels they are weakened to the breaking point. Our snowpack is similar - And the Provo area mountains have some of the weakest snow in the northern Utah mountains. In isolated places, the faceted layers are particularly weak and all it take is a small push by a person's weight or a smaller slide to trigger a large avalanche. Which slopes will slide is variable and unpredictable - complex terrain with break overs, shallow rocky spots, cliffs, changes in aspect and steepness are certainly suspect. Old tracks are not a definitive indication of stability. (For example, notice the tracks on the slope adjacent to Thursday's Kessler slide.) See the heat map for distribution by aspect and elevation of recent human triggered avalanches.

How can this persistent slab hazard be handled? Terrain is your friend: enjoy the powder on low angle slopes with no overhead hazard.

Control work on a wind-loaded east aspect at 11,000' in Mary Ellen Gulch resulted in a large, complex avalanche with a crown up to 10'.

A bit further to the north, a large skier-triggered slide on an east aspect at 9700' on Kessler Peak in Big Cottonwood Canyon. The rider was carried 300' and fortunately emerged with no serious injuries.

Mark Staples and Trent Meisenheimer went to the scene late yesterday afternoon and have an excellent accident write-up as well as video summary (pay particular attention to Mark's sage advice towards the end of the video, advice that can be applied to many of the mountain locations in Utah):
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Wet Loose: Another day of warm temperatures and potential sun could heat the snow surface on low elevation slopes and on sunny slopes facing east through south through northwesterly. So if the sun comes out for a prolonged period where you are and the snow gets wet and sloppy, it’s time to get off of and out from under steep slopes. Roof-avalanches: Buildings are starting to shed their winter snow, so look up and avoid travel below steep roofs.

Dave Richards photo:

Cornices have softened and are sensitive, often breaking back further than expected, on to what looks like flat terrain. So give them a wide berth and avoid travel below th
weather

A mild northwest flow will bring partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures to the mountains today. 9 and 10,000’ highs will be in the mid 30s to low 40s, and the northwesterly winds will be light at the mid elevations. The moderate winds at the upper elevations should diminish later today. This disappointing dry, warm weather will last through at least midweek.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.