Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Drew Hardesty for Wednesday - March 7, 2018 - 7:44am
bottom line

The danger is CONSIDERABLE for human triggered slides 2-4' deep and a couple hundred feet wide on west to north to southeast facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations. TAKE NOTE: Three were triggered yesterday unintentionally with two very lucky individuals caught and carried with no injuries. These avalanches may be otherwise unsurvivable.

The danger for wet avalanches on the steep sunny aspects may rise to CONSIDERABLE with direct sun and daytime heating. Roof-a-lanches are likely and have resulted in fatalities in years past.
special announcement

We have discount lift tickets for Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, Solitude, Snowbasin,and Beaver Mountain. Details and order information here. All proceeds from these go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education!

This Thursday and Saturday (March 8th & 10th) Be prepared if going snowshoeing - Snowshoe Backcountry 101 Introduction to Avalanches at Brighton Resort. Two snowshoers were killed in an avalanche in Washington just over a week ago. Get educated or recommend this class to a friend.

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current conditions

Skies are mostly clear with some high streamers moving overhead. Temps are in the mid to low 20s; winds are light from the west. Snow depths are 30-45" in the mid-elevatins of the Provo mountains and riding conditions are good. The southerly aspects will be crusted this morning.

UAC and UDOT Provo visited the Cascade ridgeline on Monday - https://utahavalanchecenter.org/observations/37922
recent activity

Large natural and human triggered avalanches were reported from the weekend storm through yesterday. They occurred along the Cascade ridgeline, Box Elder and in upper AF and Mill Canyon. See below.

03/6/2018 Salt Lake region: Avalanche: Mill Canyon, Skier trigger - 2.5' deep - 200' wide

03/6/2018 Salt Lake region: Accident: Major Evans Gulch, Snowmobiler trigger - 3' deep - 500' wide

03/4/2018 Provo region: Avalanche: Box Elder, Natural trigger

03/4/2018 Provo region: Avalanche: Santaquin Canyon, Hiker trigger - 6" deep - 30' wide

03/4/2018 Provo region: Avalanche: Cascade Ridge, Natural trigger - 3" deep - 800' wide

Video of close call in upper American fork yesterday
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The avalanche problem to pay attention to the most is persistent slab avalanches. With recent load of new snow, the danger remains Considerable on mid and upper elevations on NW, N, NE and E aspects. There is a widespread layer of weak facets near a layer of dust that will produce more avalanches. Below is a photo of this layer from Cascade mountain showing where it fractures. The snowpack in the Provo area mountains is generally much weaker and more unstable than the snowpack in mountains to the north.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

The temperatures and just enough wind kept the sunny aspects in check yesterday. A melt-freeze crust will exist this morning on these aspects and this will slow down the wet activity, but not thwart it by any means. So...early direct sun, temps warming to the 40s at the mid-elevation, and perhaps some later afternoon greenhousing will activate the wet avalache activity. Natural and human triggered wet avalanches will be likely and may subsequently trigger still-stabilizing storm slabs on the way downslope. I expect there may be decent debris piles beneath the steepest, most sustained avalanche slopes. Don't overstay your welcome - the window will be quite narrow between breakable crust and wet/unstable. Choose the cold snow instead.

KEY POINT: ROOF-A-LANCHES will be a significant concern. Watch for many houses to shed their winter coats with the sun and daytime heating. Fatalities have occurred due to this very real hazard.

weather

We'll have high clouds today that should thicken and lower by the afternoon. Greenhousing is possible. Mountain temperatures along the ridglines will rise to the upper 20s as mid-elevation temps will rise to the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds will be light from the west. A weak system pushes through Friday/Sat. The next storm looks to be a week out.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.