Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Greg Gagne for Friday - February 23, 2018 - 7:10am
bottom line

A CONSIDERABLE hazard exists on steep slopes facing north through east at the upper elevations where human-triggered avalanches 1-3' failing in older snow are possible. Sluffing in loose storm snow is likely on steeper slopes. Although winds are forecasted to remain generally light, any increase in wind speeds will quickly create pockets of sensitive wind drifts at the upper elevations.

The Good News: excellent and safer skiing and riding conditions can be found on many non-wind loaded southerly aspects, as well as lower-angled northerly slopes. Storms the past few weeks have finally provided options at the mid elevations for the first time this season.




special announcement

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current conditions

Temperatures in the Provo mountains are in the low to mid teens. Winds are out of the south/southeast and generally light, averaging less than 10 mph with gusts in the teens at the upper elevations.

2" of snow has fallen since Thursday afternoon. Further north, the Ogden mountains did quite well on Thursday with a sleeper system that left 7-14".

Cold temperatures and generally cloudy weather this week has preserved excellent riding conditions on almost all aspects, with only a thin crust on southerly aspects.

Although Salt Lake-centric, be sure to check our Week in Review as you make your weekend plans:
recent activity

No avalanche activity reported from the Provo mountains on Thursday.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

There is a MODERATE hazard in isolated terrain for triggering a persistent slab avalanche that could break down 1-3' into older snow. Photo below from Andrew Bentz observation shows a persistent slab avalanche from early this week:

This terrain is on north through east aspects above 9500', and includes steep, rocky areas where there is a weak shallow snowpack as shown in the photo below.

It is easy to identify this snowpack structure by inverting your pole and jamming the handle down into the snow. If you can easily push through to the ground you have most likely found one of these thinner snowpack areas.

An excellent observation from Thursday highlights the overall weak snowpack structure found throughout the Provo mountains.
Avalanche Problem 3
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

On Thursday I was finding the top 2-4" of the snow surface weak, and was easily getting sluffs to easily move on steeper terrain. I am expecting the snow at the existing surface to initially be the weakest layer with an additional load of storm snow and/or wind-loading,

Any storm snow today will easily sluff on steeper slopes, especially those facing northwest through east where the existing snow surface is weakest. These sluffs will generally be small, but be aware of a sluff carrying you over rocks or accumuating in a steeper terrain trap. Ski cuts at the top of steeper slopes are an effective tool at mitigating this hazard.

Although winds are forecasted to remain generally light, any increase in wind speeds will quickly create pockets of sensitive wind drifts at the upper elevations.

Sluffing in the storm snow and any fresh wind drifts will also easily run on any slick crusts on southerly aspects.
weather

With apologies to Henry James, we are in blissfully in the midst of the most beautiful words in the English language: cold, northwest flow. South winds will shift to the northwest early this afternoon, and should remain generally light, but gusts into the 20's mph at the upper elevations are possible. 2-4" of low-density snow is forecasted during the day, with the period of heaviest snowfall during the afternoon as the flow shifts to the northwest. Temperatures aren't expected to rise much today, rising into the low teens. Snow showers and temperatures dipping into the single digits overnight.

Short break Saturday with a quick-hitting windier system expected later Saturday evening.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.