Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Trent Meisenheimer for Monday - February 12, 2018 - 6:12am
bottom line

Most terrain continues with LOW danger. However, a MODERATE danger exists for wind slab avalanches at all upper elevations today. Be on the lookout for wind drifted snow and avoid being on pillowy, hollow sounding snow.

As an outlier, human triggered avalanches 1-2' deep are unlikely but not impossible in isolated terrain. Many experienced people continue to avoid steep slopes facing north through northeast at the mid and upper elevations - particularly if the slope offers a poor runout.
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current conditions

Under mostly cloudy skies this morning it will undoubtedly be a different day from yesterday's glorious sun. Winds this morning are out of the south and buzzing along the ridgelines 15-20 mph gusting into the 30's. Mountain temperatures remain on the cool side with upper elevations in the teens °F. The Provo mountains picked up a trace to 2" of new snow on Saturday.
recent activity

No recent reports from the Provo mountains.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

As the southerly winds picked up yesterday it was easy to notice the low density snow moving around. Winds will continue loading slopes throughout the day and you can expect shallow wind slabs along the upper elevation ridgelines. Wind slabs may extend beyond ridges into subridges, gullies, lee sides of roll-overs and micro terrain features. The most suspect aspects will be ones with a northerly component.

It will be very different today - if you got into steep upper elevation terrain yesterday be prepared with a different mindset today. Be on the lookout for pillowy drifts of wind blown snow.

Photo: Mark Staples at Alta yesterday noticing the strong southerly wind blowing on Mt. Baldy.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Yesterday, during my field day in Mineral Fork (SLC mountains) my partners and I were drooling over how good the steep northeast face looked. We quickly snapped out of our TGR mind surfing session and had a quick discussion about the reality of that line. We determined that the weak and fragile snow structure, plus the chance of triggering a persistent slab avalanche with the consequences of trees in the runout was too much. We simply backed off the steeper line to a more easterly line that was only 32° and less committing. We were still rewarded with great powder.

The snow structure is most suspect on north to northeast facing slopes above 8500' feet, especially, ones that are being loaded by the wind today. There still remains the chance, although, unlikely, of triggering an avalanche 1-2' deep.

weather

Mostly cloudy with occasional snow showers throughout the day today. Winds will remain out of the southwest blowing 15-20 mph along the upper elevation ridgelines before tapering off later in the afternoon and evening hours. 1-3" of snow possible today before clearing out on Tuesday. Mountain temperatures will reach into the mid 20's °F at 9,000' feet.

The good news - we have a decent storm shaping up for Wednesday into Thursday that will be another refresher to the mountains. While it won't be a blockbuster, it should deliver 3-6" of new snow, hopefully. Another storm is shaping up for Sunday.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.