Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Mark Staples for Tuesday - February 6, 2018 - 7:18am
bottom line

Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE for triggering a persistent slab avalanche on mid and upper elevation slopes that face NW through E, especially on slopes that are heavily wind loaded. Also the danger is MODERATE for triggering shallow wind slabs formed by today's WNW winds.




special announcement

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current conditions

This morning temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 20’s F. Winds are averaging 10 mph gusting to 20 mph from the WNW. With no new snow overnight and just a trace of snow from Sunday night, conditions aren’t the best and the snow surface should be mostly frozen after the last few days of warm weather.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

The last persistent slab avalanches were triggered a week ago and this problem has been mostly dormant. Snowfall over the last 48 hours with 0.5 inches of snow water equivalent should only increase the odds of triggering a persistent slab avalanche a little bit.

The most likely places to trigger one of these avalanches are freshly wind-loaded slopes above 9000 feet that face NW through E. A good example of one of these slopes is one a rider triggered two weekends ago. Read more about it here and see the photo below (Zach and Cindi Grant).

There is some good news. Weak facets on some slopes especially mid and lower elevations became slightly damp during recent warm weather as Evelyn found near the White Pine drainage yesterday and regular observer Mark White found yesterday on Reynold’s Peak. Today’s cold temperatures will help strengthen buried facets on these slopes. Watch the video below or go here.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

There may be a few fresh wind slabs that form today as new snow falls. With minimal snow available for transport, these wind slabs should be isolated and pretty small.

weather

Another disturbance will descend over northern Utah today bringing cold air and snow. Temperatures should drop a few degrees from where they are this morning an mostly be in the teens and low 20's F. As this disturbance approaches, wind speeds may increase a little, but overall they should continue from the WNW at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph. At the highest elevations near 11,000 feet winds should remain strong and average 30-40 mph. Fingers crossed, but another 3-4 inches should fall today. We need every bit of snow we can get. The next chance for snow doesn't arrive until Saturday.

general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.