Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Drew Hardesty for Saturday - February 3, 2018 - 7:14am
bottom line

Most terrain has a LOW avalanche danger. Isolated areas of MODERATE danger, however, exist on northwest to east facing slopes above about 9000'. In this terrain, human triggered avalanches 1-3' deep are possible. Additionally, shallow pockets of soft and hard wind slab are littered across the landscape, but most problematic in high consequence terrain. Lastly, damp push-alanches are possible in steep low to mid-elevation sheltered slopes that have remained warm for the past several days.
special announcement

The latest UAC podcast - "Recreating Like a Pro - A Conversation with IFMGA guide Anna Keeling" is live. This podcast will be ideal for anyone looking to pick up some tips and tricks from a professional mountain guide for recreating in the winter backcountry environment.
current conditions

Skies are mostly cloudy. Mountain temps are in the mid to upper 30s. Winds are westerly, blowing 20-25mph with gusts to 35. 11,000' winds are blowing 35-45mph. Snow totals are 20-30" in the high country but barely enough coverage on the southerly aspects for much recreation.

Although Salt Lake-centric, be sure to read our latest Week in Review for avalanche activity and significant mountain weather events from this past week.
recent activity

None. Recent observations of snow and weather below.

01/30/2018 Observation: Mary Ellen Salt Lake region B
01/29/2018 Observation: Sundance backcountry Provo region Evelyn
01/28/2018 Observation: Cascade Ridge line Provo region Tyler Falk
01/24/2018 Observation: UFO Bowls Provo region Hardesty
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

I was able to collapse and crack out a small test slope yesterday on a north facing piece of terrain at 9200'. It cracked out about 1' deep and 20' across. It wasn't particularly representative of most of our terrain and yet there it was: poor structure, additional wind loading, trigger. Collapse. The moderate to strong winds will add just a bit of extra stress to areas of poor structure. Our lingering persistent slab avalanche problem exists at elevations 9000' and above, on slopes facing northwest through east (with a particular emphasis on north through northeast.) Thinner snowpack areas are particularly suspect.
weather

By and large, we'll be under a moderate to strong northwesterly flow for the rest of time eternal. Ok at least for the next week. Expect maybe a trace to an inch of snow this weekend with perhaps 1-3" on Monday/Tuesday. The Logan and Ogden mountains may see more than twice that. For today, we'll have overcast skies, west-northwest winds blowing 35+mph and temps in the upper 20s along the ridgelines.

I've cherry picked one of the weather models for expected total precipitation (in SWE - Snow Water Equivalent) through next Friday. As you can see, we're clearly on the dry side of the storm track while our neighbors to the north in Idaho, Wyoming and Montana eat our lunch. Road trip anyone?
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.