Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Evelyn Lees for Thursday - February 1, 2018 - 6:36am
bottom line

The Avalanche Danger is MODERATE on steep, mid and upper elevation slopes facing west through north through east. Human triggered avalanches 1 to 3 feet deep and up to 200’ wide are possible in isolated places, failing on weak faceted snow grains. There is also a MODERATE danger of triggering a new wind drift, most widespread on upper elevation north through easterly facing slopes.




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current conditions

Under overcast skies, temperatures at the mid elevations in the Provo area mountains have cooled into the thirties. The southerly to westerly winds kicked up for several hours last night, averaging up to 25 mph at the mid elevations, with gusts to 40 mph. Currently, speeds have decreased to less than 10 mph. On the sunny slopes and on all aspects below about 8,500’ the ice crusts will probably not soften much today.

And if you're thinking the snowpack seems a bit shallow at your favorite trailhead, you're right...map is looking at the water content of the current snowpack, percent of average. Go to the Web page here. and you can click on individual stations for details.


recent activity

No new avalanches reported from the Provo area mountans. Further north, in the Millcreek drainage, there were two new slides reported in Alexander Basin yesterday, one triggered with an intentional cornice drop onto a very steep, rocky northeast-facing slope with a shallow snowpack, the other’s trigger unknown. These are probably representative of conditions at the upper elevations in the Provo area mountains.

Red arrow points to two people. Alexander Basin, Drew Hardesty photo.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

The chance of triggering a slide on one of the buried layers of faceted snow is decreasing, but if you do, the size would be the same - 1 to 3 feet deep, and up to a couple hundred feet wide. By avoiding steep, west through north through easterly facing slopes, you can avoid triggering one of these slides. Thinner snowpack areas are particularly suspect – such as rocky rollovers, the Park City and Millcreek ridgelines and drainages and the mid elevations.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Though there is minimal snow is available for transport, last night’s stronger westerly winds will have found some snow to drift into sensitive slabs at the higher elevations, especially on northerly through easterly facing slopes. The drifts are sitting on dry snow and thin rime crusts, and can be triggered by a person on steep slopes.

weather

A series of very weak weather disturbances on a northwest flow will cross northern Utah through the weekend. The first shortwave will arrive late this afternoon, producing lots of clouds and a few snow flurries. At times today, the westerly winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph at the mid elevations, with the high peaks reaching averages of 35 to 45 mph at times, with gusts in the 50s. Temperatures will warm into the upper 30s to low 40s today, cooling back down into the twenties tonight.

A few inches of snow are possible Friday night into Saturday as another weak disturbance quickly moves through

general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.