Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Evelyn Lees for Wednesday - January 31, 2018 - 7:03am
bottom line

The Avalanche Danger is MODERATE on steep, mid and upper elevation slopes facing west through north through east. Human triggered avalanches 1 to 3 feet deep and up to 200’ wide are possible in isolated places, failing on one of the buried faceted weak layers. Avoid any new wind drifts at the upper elevations, and if the sun comes out where you are, a few wet loose sluffs are possible.




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current conditions

Under mostly cloudy skies, it is another warm morning, with temperatures in the mid thirties to low 40s at the mid and lower elevations of the Provo area mountains. Many mid and lower elevation stations have had no refreeze for 48 hours. The west to southwesterly wind speeds have been variable for the past 24 hours – at their peak, they’ve averaged almost 35 mph at the mid elevations, with gusts in the 40s. Sheltered, northerly facing slopes are the best bet for relatively softer snow, but getting to the mid to upper elevations remains difficult. And some areas of the Provo area mountains did get the rime crust. The stouter sun and ice crusts on all lower elevation and sunny slopes may or may not soften today.

recent activity

There has been no recent avalanche activity in the Provo area mountains maybe becuase few people have been venturing up high compared to the SLC area mountains where trailheads are much higher.

Red arrows below point to days with one or more backcountry human triggered slides in the Salt Lake area mountains, compared with nearby snowfall. It shows how the facets layers can remain weak and active days after a storm.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Avalanches in the Salt Lake and Park City area mountians are worth reading about becuase similar conditions exists in the Provo area mountains at the upper elevations.

It’s like we’re collectively playing the arcade game Wack-a-mole. No matter how fast, agile, and smart we are, we’ll eventually lose because the game is rigged, just as our snowpack is rigged…with layers of weak facets. As we are several days out from the last wind and snow events, the chance of triggering a slide is decreasing, but the size would be the same - 1 to 3 feet deep, and up to a couple hundred feet wide. By avoiding steep, west through north through easterly facing slopes, you can avoid playing the game and losing. Thinner snowpack areas are particularly suspect.

One way to get a grasp on these avalanches is to check out the excellent accident reports, with videos, on the last 3 close calls:

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Wind Slabs: little snow is available for transport, but a few new wind slabs have likely formed at the highest elevations, especially on northerly through easterly facing slopes. The drifts are sitting on dry snow and thin rime crusts, and can be triggered by a person on steep slopes.

Wet Loose: it’s a balancing act today between the cooling clouds and wind and the very warm temperatures. If the sun pops out where you are, the snow will rapidly heat, and you could trigger a wet loose sluff. The snow will also become damp and sloppy on all aspects below about 8,500’ with daytime heating.

weather

A dry cold front crossing northern Utah will bring abundant mid and high level clouds today, with periods of increased wind speeds. The westerly winds will average 15 to 25 mph at the mid elevations, with the high peaks reaching averages of 35 mph at times, with gusts to 50 mph. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday, but still way above average – hitting 35 to 40 degrees F at the mid elevations. The future is not looking bright – cloudy and warm, with occasional high elevation snow flurries.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.