Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Drew Hardesty for Sunday - January 28, 2018 - 7:34am
bottom line

A scary MODERATE danger exists in the mid and upper elevation west to north to easterly facing slopes. Human triggered avalanches 1-3'+ deep remain possible in this terrain. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. A MODERATE danger also exists for fresh wind drifts along the higher elevations.

The safest and arguably best riding conditions can be found on the shady, sheltered terrain on low angle slopes with no overhead hazard.
special announcement

We have discount lift tickets for Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, Solitude, Snowbasin,and Beaver Mountain. Details and order information here. All proceeds from these go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education!
current conditions

Skies are overcast with westerly winds blowing 15, gusting to 25. Temps are in the upper 20s. Riding conditions are fair out of the wind and sun affected terrain. Snow depths sit at 2-3' in the high country.

recent activity

No avalanche activity was reported from the backcountry.

An accident report has been completed for a very close call on Friday in the central Wasatch. You can find the link here.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Our persistent slab problem isn't going to heal overnight. And even if stability slowly increases over time, these avalanches may continue to spring out of dormancy with each subsequent loading event. These avalanches are insidious: they continue to occur with many tracks already on the slope, with no signs of cracking or collapsing, and each often triggered from a distance. It's why expert intution is impossible with these types of avalanches and even the most experienced practitioners are surprised. It reminds me of 2010 when many very experienced people were caught off-guard (myself included) by a similar snowpack structure - with in particular a fatality nearly eight years ago to the day in the Meadow Chutes of Silver Fork.

The aspects I am most concerned about are 9000' and above, facing west to north through east.

On Wednesday I spent time in the UFO Bowls on Timpanogos, finding a complex structure of faceted snow and crusts.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Thick and dense wind drifts may be found along the higher elevations, but perhaps further down the slope than expected. They'll be more pronounced on steep north to southeast facing slopes and even cross-loaded onto steep southwest and southerly aspects. Look for rounded, pillowy features around rocky outcrops, beyond subridges into adjacent gullies, and in the lee of other terrain features.
weather

We'll see a trace to an inch of snow with riming possible. Winds should lose some steam over the course of the day as the skies trend party cloudy by afternoon. Temps will be in the mid 20s, marching toward the low 30s (even at ridgetop level) by tomorrow. Tomorrow should be partly cloudy, warm, with light wind. Looking down the road, the ridge of high pressure retrogrades west and amplifiies, keeping us under an unsettled and cool northwest flow through the week. Possible snow for next weekend.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.