Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Drew Hardesty for Saturday - January 20, 2018 - 7:15am
bottom line

Areas of "scary" MODERATE danger still exist for triggering a 1-3' deep persistent slab avalanche into old snow. These are more pronounced on steep northwesterly to northeasterly slopes above about 9000'.Loose snow avalanches are also likely in the steepest terrain. As always, good habits save lives: make a plan, one at a time on the slope, get out of the way at the bottom.
special announcement

Episode 3 of the UAC podcast went live last night. We talk with UDOT Avalanche Program Supervisor Bill Nalli on how he and his teams keep the Greatest Snow on Earth from avalanching over the open roads and highways of the state. Find it on our blog site (linked above), iTunes, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcasts.
current conditions

Mountain snowfall is up to 5" with temps in the low 20s. Winds are generally light.

Reading our Week in Review will be worthwhile as you are planning your weekend, especially with an approaching storm. Although this is Salt Lake-centric, each Friday we summarize mountain weather and avalanche activity, as well as archived forecasts and danger roses, for the past week. Make it a regular part of your Fridays!
recent activity

No avalanches were reported from Thursday, and the last reported backcountry avalanche was this past Tuesday (in the Salt Lake mountains). However, during this last avalanche cycle, 8 people were caught in avalanches, with several close calls. Click HERE for a list of all reported avalanches in Utah.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Watch for the new low density snow to move with human provocation on the steepest slopes. I expect the sluffs to move fast and far on the slick underlying sun and wind crusts, entraining all the storm snow in the path below. The good news is that these types of avalanches readily show their cards and hold little mystery: they respond to ski cuts and cornice drops and break at your feet or machine rather than above you. It's cause and effect (unlike our persistent slab problem - see below). Compare and contrast the two types of avalanche problems with their accompanying info-graphics (thanks to Jim Conway for the artwork).
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

The new storm snow is only window dressing for the continued persistent slab problems plaguing our conditionally unstable snowpack. We've slowly transitioned to a "low-probability - high consequence" regime where likelihood and sensitivity have greatly diminished but the consequences remain severe. Note that the additional stress of a more superficial storm snow avalanche may subsequently trigger one of these persistent slab avalanches. In sharp contrast to loose snow avalanches, this avalanche problem often holds its cards close where tests and observations may be inconsistent and misleading and avalanches may break well above the committed skier or rider. Again, use the infographics below to contrast with loose snow avalanches above.

weather

Snowfall should continue throughout the day with accumulations up to 3-5". Northeasterly winds are expected to be light. Mountain temperatures will continue to drop into the low teens. The northwest winds are expecetd to increase perhaps tomorrow if not Monday. The pattern remains unsettled with a larger winter storm for late week.
general announcements

CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ

Support the UAC through your daily shopping. When you shop at Smith's, or online at REI, Backcountry.com, Patagonia, NRS, Amazon, eBay a portion of your purchase will be donated to the FUAC. See our Donate Page for more details on how you can support the UAC when you shop.

Benefit the Utah Avalanche Center when you buy or sell on eBay - set the Utah Avalanche Center as a favorite non-profit in your eBay account here and click on eBay gives when you buy or sell. You can choose to have your seller fees donated to the UAC, which doesn't cost you a penny.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.