Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Drew Hardesty for Tuesday - November 29, 2016 - 7:19am
bottom line

One must approach steep terrain with the mindset of a CONSIDERABLE danger today. Give the snow some time to adjust as conditions are likely to improve over the next day or so. You'll find plenty of good and safe riding in the mid-elevation, sheltered terrain even on lower slope angles in the low density snow. If heading into steeper terrain - it's game on: One-at-a-time, have your rescue gear dialed, have good communication, make a plan. It wouldn't surprise me to see a few close calls today.




current conditions

This storm was the real deal. Like days of old...

Skies are mostly cloudy. The north to northwest winds are generally well-behaved, blowing 10-15mph with occasional gusts to the mid-20s. Temps are in the teens.

Storm totals since Saturday night are impressive:

25"/2.05" with 22" on the ground at 7500'.

recent activity

No reports of activity in the Provo mountains, though one might have expected some natural new snow avalanches during higher snowfall rates over the past couple days.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

While the drifts are slowly stabilizing, one must approach the steeper wind loaded terrain with caution. Despite just moderate winds, the low density snow was easily pushed around, and one may still find some soft drifts cross-loaded beyond the subridges and in the lee of other terrain features. Test slopes, cornice drops, and doing the home-work (ie: digging test pits) will provide some good indication of localized stability.

Cornices will remain sensitive and may calve off on approach. Be wary of ridgelines and don't let the cornice break off behind you. The tumbling boxcar may trigger an avalanche on the slope below.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The sensitivity will not be what it was yesterday but the simple fact is that it may take a day or two for the storm snow to settle out and gain strength. 20-25" of storm snow will naturally have a few weak interfaces that may still run with human weight or interaction. The colder temps tend not to aid in the settlement process but the trends are on the upswing toward stabilization. Again, test slopes, test pits, and cornice drops should give some indication of localized stability.

Avalanche Problem 3
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Any new snow avalanche in the upper elevation northerly terrain may step down to the weak sugary facets near the ground. The slides will likely be 1-3' deep and a few hundred feet wide and may be unsurvivable. This storm was a good test to see how the basal facets reacted under stress. Your weight will be additional stress today if entering the upper elevation northerly terrain. These may be isolated and pocket with the good news is that all this additional snow may help to stabilize them more quickly over time.

weather

Overcast skies will turn mostly cloudy as we take a quick breather before the next storm on track for Wednesday night into early Friday. Winds will be light to moderate from the north-northwest. Temps will remain in the single digits up high and the the upper teens down low. The next storm moves through and cuts off, diving to the southwest, but should provide perhaps 2-5" in its wake. Perhaps another weak wave for Saturday followed by a continued series of storms on the horizon.

general announcements

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.

To get help in an emergency (to request a rescue) in the Wasatch, call 911. Be prepared to give your GPS coordinates or the run name. Dispatchers have a copy of the Wasatch Backcountry Ski map.

Backcountry Emergencies. It outlines your step-by-step method in the event of a winter backcountry incident.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry, but no one is hurt and you do not need assistance, please notify the nearest ski area dispatch to avoid a needless response by rescue teams. Thanks.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.