Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Saturday - March 14, 2015 - 6:35am
bottom line

We have a LOW avalanche danger this morning that will increase to MODERATE with daytime heating. Don't linger below steep sunny slopes and stay out of gullies. Watch the northerly terrain if it becomes wet.




current conditions

Temperatures are about 5 degrees warmer this morning compared to Friday morning with readings along the highest terrain in the upper 20s but most stations in the low to mid 30s. We had a clear night so I expect to find a thin re-freeze of the snow surface this morning. It'll be short lived. We have generally light winds from the south or southeast.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 48 hours
description

With a significant heating trend through the weekend, we will need to pay attention to how this makes the snowpack react. Here are some things to keep in mind:

  • The key today is get after it early and get off steep slopes as they become soggy.
  • Make sure your route doesn't put you in terrain traps later in the day such as gullies with steep walls or larger avalanche paths that funnel into them.
  • Glide avalanches are possible in Stairs, Broads, Mill B South
  • Temperatures may get warm enough to re-activate our buried persistent weak layer which could cause wet slab avalanches on east, north and west facing aspects where the layer is present. This is probably more of a concern Sunday and into Monday after a couple of days of continued warm temperatures.

It is hard to predict just how dangerous the heating will make things get so my forecasting confidence is low. We may see no significant avalanche activity but I wouldn't be surprised to see some dangerous avalanches either.

weather

Clear skies this morning will yield to clouds as the day progresses. It's going to be quite warm. Ridgetop temperatures will get into the 40s and we'll have light to moderate speed southerly wind gradually increasing later. I'm anticipating a poor refreeze of the snow surface tonight with continued warm temperatures and cloud cover. The warming trend continues into Sunday with slightly warmer temperatures than today. Monday will be warm also but not quite as warm as Sunday. There is some sort of a messy storm system shaping up for mid week but it doesn't look significant in the least.

general announcements

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If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033), Canyons Resort Dispatch (435-615-3322)

Snowbasin Resort Dispatch (801-620-1017), Powder Mountain Dispatch (801-745-3772 x 123).

Sundance Dispatch (801-223-4150)

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Wasatch Powderbird Guides Blog/Itinerary for the Day.  

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.