Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Drew Hardesty for Tuesday - January 27, 2015 - 7:16am
bottom line

We're transitioning back toward a LOW avalanche danger but I want another 24 hours in the cooling trend before we give it an all-out green (L1). For today, consider it MODERATE for human triggered wet loose push-a-lanches until proven otherwise. Even northerlies may be suspect. The wet loose danger should be immediately recognizable based on how the snow reacts under your feet or sled. Avoid being in terrain above terrain traps.




special announcement

Bruce went to out to UAC forecaster Brett Kobernik's garage the other day to see what the mad scientist has been up to lately...and put together a video because, as they say, you'd have to see it to believe it. Blog post.

As written elsewhere, "Brett “Kowboy’ Kobernik may be the most valuable player. Originally a Michigan farmer, he has that keen inquisitive eye for understanding how things work. With a PHD in garage science, he is the father of the original split-board and has built his own snow density kits, ram-penetrometer for gauging snowpack structure, thermocron I-buttons for measuring snow temps…the list goes on and on. And while he was laid up with a broken femur (from a dirt-biking accident in southern Utah), he taught himself how to code and now he’s the de-facto computer expert for the team. He’s easy-going, quick with a laugh, and always good for a, uh, lemonade at the end of the day."
current conditions

Currently we have partly cloudy skies, overnight lows in the upper 30s and low 40s, and moderate winds out of the southeast. Of greater interest is the record breaking temps yesterday. From our friends at the National Weather Service -

"While we did not break many temperature records in Utah's valleys due to inversion conditions, we did have record temperatures above the surface. Our office sends up weather balloons twice a day, every day, and has been doing so since 1956. On our balloon release this afternoon, we recorded a temperature of 7.8 degrees Celsius at the pressure level of 700 mb (that is, approximately 10,000 feet above sea level). This is the warmest temperature we have ever recorded at that level between December 17 and March 21."

Snow surface conditions are a mixed bag of sun, wind, and melt-freeze crusts with a smattering of soft settled powder thrown in to keep morale high.

recent activity

Yesterday's activity included more natural and human triggered wet loose avalanches on northeast to south to westerly facing aspects...pic below of natural wet point release in upper White Pine of LCC - west southwest facing at 10,600'.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Springtime avalanche concerns in January are tricky with a fair bit of forecasting uncertainty. The good news is that under most circumstances, simple observations and tactile awareness of how the snow is reacting under your feet or sled should provide the answers to slope-scale (in)stability. In today's case, it's a meteorological tug-of-war.

  • The good - clear overnight skies allowed for long wave radiational cooling. Moderate and gusty winds can help with cooling of the snow surface; increasing clouds may stave off energy from otherwise direct heating from solar radiation.
  • The bad - record breaking temps from yesterday and very warm overnight lows (many areas well above freezing). Sometimes cloud-cover accentuates the problem through green-housing - which often provokes even the shady northerly aspects as well.
  • The ugly - snow surface conditions for sliding on snow are ripe for satire. But just for the record, any day on snow is a good day.

Click on the 'i' next to the Wet Loose Icon for more info and travel advice.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Other assortment of minor but mentionable concerns for bc travel -

  • Shallow and very pockety wind drifts from the gusty southeasterly winds yesterday. Hard wind drifts without much support may be found in the high alpine. Hollow or collapsing sounds are good indicators here. Not much snow to blow around, but the wind - particularly from unusual directions - can have a way of finding, eroding, and drifting snow.
  • Cornice fall- these large overhanging waves often sag and buckle during intense warmups and heat-waves and may still be sensitive to human weight...breaking off well back from the apex of the ridgeline.
weather

We'll have increasing clouds as a weak storm moves overhead from the south and southwest. We'll be on a slight cooling trend as ridgetop temps drop to the mid-20s. Winds will remain southerly at 25mph. We may even see a few inches of snow with perhaps an initial rain/snow line at 8000'. The next storm also moves in from the southwest Thursday through early Saturday though it looks as if the broad system has more of its eye on Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado.

general announcements

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033), Canyons Resort Dispatch (435-615-3322)

Snowbasin Resort Dispatch (801-620-1017), Powder Mountain Dispatch (801-745-3772 x 123).

Sundance Dispatch (801-223-4150)

EMAIL ADVISORY  If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you will need to subscribe here.​ 

DAWN PATROL Hotline updated daily by 5-530am - 888-999-4019 option 8.

Twitter Updates for your mobile phone - DETAILS

UDOT canyon closures:  LINK TO UDOT, or on Twitter, follow @UDOTavy, @CanyonAlerts or @AltaCentral

Utah Avalanche Center mobile app - Get your advisory on your iPhone along with great navigation and rescue tools.

Wasatch Powderbird Guides Blog/Itinerary for the Day.  

Lost or Found something in the backcountry? - http://nolofo.com/

Ski Utah mobile snow updates

Discount lift tickets are now available at Backcountry.com.  Thanks to Ski Utah and the Utah Resorts.  All proceeds go towards paying for Utah Avalanche Center avalanche and mountain weather advisories.

To those skinning uphill at resorts:  it is your responsibility to know the resort policy on uphill travel.  You can see the uphill travel policy for each resort here. IMPORTANT: Before skinning or hiking at a resort under new snow conditions, check in with Ski Patrol.  Resorts can restrict or cut off access if incompatible with control and grooming operations.

Benefit the Utah Avalanche Center when you shop from Backcountry.com or REI:  Click this link for Backcountry.com or this link to REI, shop, and they will donate a percent of your purchase price to the UAC.  Both offer free shipping (with some conditions) so this costs you nothing!

Benefit the Utah Avalanche Center when you buy or sell on ebay - set the Utah Avalanche Center as a favorite non-profit in your ebay account here and click on ebay gives when you buy or sell.  You can choose to have your seller fees donated to the UAC, which doesn't cost you a penny.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.