Provo Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Drew Hardesty

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

On March 11th and 13th, the Utah Avalanche Center and SheJumps will team up to provide a Backcountry 101 class for women only. We will have a Friday night lecture and a Sunday field day to teach youthe basics of how to ski / ride avalanche smart in the Utah backcountry andgive you the confidence and skills to make good decisions for yourself and your group in the backcountry. Details here.

There are just a few lift tickets left - to Sundance and Wolf Mountain ski resorts – 100% of the sale of these donated tickets goes to support the Utah Avalanche.


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Most terrain has a LOW (L1) danger this morning. We have lingering pockets of MODERATE (L2) for shallow new wind drifts along the high, lee north to east to south facing slopes. Pockets of CONSIDERABLE (L3) danger exist for triggering isolated deep slab avalanches in thin shallow rocky terrain on steep north through east facing slopes. The danger will be on the rise with today’s additional snow and wind, particularly in areas north of I-80.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

A two-pronged storm is at the doorstep and light snow is already being reported in the central Wasatch with two to three already north of I-80. Riding conditions remain fair to middlin’, particularly in the sun and wind sheltered terrain. The westerly winds move at 20-25mph with gusts to 30 and temps are in the low 30s at 8000'.


RECENT ACTIVITY

We didn't have any reports of activity in the Provo area mountains, but one could extrapolate from the central Wasatch regarding activity from yesterday - The increasing southwest winds initiated some sizeable natural cornice fall yesterday high along the Cottonwood/American Fork ridgeline on White Baldy, the Cottonwood ridgeline in Tanners Gulch, and along the PC ridgeline above the Monitors. The activity in Tanners, however, initiated a sizeable loose snow avalanche cascading down the steep extreme terrain below the ridgeline. More pics and reports can be found under Current Conditions. Isolated cracking rounded out the discussion, though I’d imagine that some shallow triggered soft slabs in the high lee terrain went unreported.

I went to check out the reported natural deep slab avalanche in Maybird Gulch of Little Cottonwood from Wednesday and came away impressed. Looks like it initially failed as a soft wind slab which then stepped down to older snow in a steep, thin rocky spot. Ultimately it pulled down beneath the MLK rain crust 2-7’ deep and perhaps 500’ wide. Unsurvivable.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Lingering wind drifts from yesterday’s winds will now be buried underneath today’s snowfall. Good terrain management and slope cuts will again be important in the steeper south to north to east facing terrain at the mid to higher elevations. Any additional load today may also step down beneath Thursday's 1-3" on hard crusts below.

Cornices should be approached with caution. Best to traverse way to the windward side of them - they're breaking back farther than expected.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 12 hours.

A word on the danger ratings. Some may be confused with how we have Low with pockets of Considerable as it bumps it up two spots rather than one. Indeed – that’s the point. In this instance, I’m not describing pockets of shallow wind slab – I’m describing pockets of 2-7’ deep hard slab. They’ll kill you. The deep slabs take no prisoners; thus it’s a powerful way to convey the likelihood and consequence.

Each of these took a significant load or had some other extenuating circumstances. Still, snowpit tests indicate that these suspect layers remain slow to heal with continued propagation potential. Initiation (or perhaps ‘triggerability’) will still be the key. In summary, it’s a good news/bad news thing. The good news is that A) there are few places where these can be triggered and B) they’re difficult to trigger, but the bad news is that they’ll be devastating when they release.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Looks like another Ogden special. The moist westerly flow seems mostly trained on areas north of I-80 and I expect they could pick up an easy 6-10” through tonight. Terrain perhaps a bit more than half of those numbers. Winds will be westerly blowing 15-20mph, with speeds 20-30mph Ogden>north to the ID border. Temps will be in the low to mid 20s with a rain/snow line at roughly 6500’. A colder storm follows for Monday afternoon into early Tuesday that should offer similar, if not slightly more amounts. A lot of variables need to stack up with these events…confidence level is fair at best.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake – Alta Central (801-742-2033)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Discount Lift tickets: Ski Utah, Backcountry.com, Alta, Deer Valley, Park City, The Canyons, Wolf Mountain, Snowbasin, Beaver Mountain, Brighton, Sundance, and Solitude have donated a limited number of tickets for sale.

Wasatch Powderbird Guides flight plan.

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

You have the opportunity to participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting avalanche and snow observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

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The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

We will update this forecast tomorrow morning. Thanks for calling.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.