Provo Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Brett Kobernik

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

A large storm that is forecast to produce a significant amount of mountain snow tonight through Saturday will most likely make the avalanche danger spike again. The danger will be on the rise and we will most likely issue an avalanche warning for Friday and Saturday.

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BE ON THE RISE TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

We start out with a Level 2 (MODERATE) avalanche danger this morning that includes scattered wind slabs along the mid and upper elevation north through east facing terrain. There are pockets of a Level 3 (CONSIDERABLE) danger that includes the chance for a more dangerous avalanche breaking into deeper persistent weak layers in the mid to upper elevation terrain on northwest through east facing slopes of 35 degrees or steeper.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

As for now we have partly cloudy skies with ridgetop temperatures in the teens to low 20s with southwest wind speeds bumping up a bit into the slightly pesky category along the ridges. We’re seeing gusts in the 20s along the mid elevation ridges and into the 40s along the higher terrain. They are not out of hand, just a little breezy.

RECENT ACTIVITY

UDOT was able to get a medium sized (class 3) avalanche to release in upper Argenta with explosives on Wednesday as they were attempting to clean out a little snow and some potential weak layers prior to this next snow event. It ran 1/3rd of the track and did break into older snow. UDOT Forecaster Matt McKee walked up to look at the crown and the layering, check out his profile HERE. (Thanks Matt, good stuff!)

THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Scattered wind slabs are your main concern today. These should be manageable for people with expert level snow assessment skills. Avoid the larger pillows and use slope cuts if possible prior to diving in. You’ll find these along the mid and upper elevation ridges and crossloaded terrain features predominantly on easterly facing aspects.

THREAT #2
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Areas with a thinner snowpack still have me concerned about deeper persistent weak layers. For the most part, this is most problematic outside of the Cottonwoods. Areas in Mill Creek, Lambs Canyon, Snake Creek, and the Cascade ridge are places where we’ve found weaker snow buried deeper which could collapse, fail, and cause a large avalanche. If this storm produces a good amount of snow and doesn’t produce many avalanches breaking into the persistent weakness, we can start to feel better about our snowpack especially after a few days of settlement. Perhaps we may see a turning point after this storm. Until then we need to consider this a problem still.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

A significant winter storm which will effect our area into the weekend will start producing snow today. We may see 2 to 4 inches by this evening. Ridgetop temperatures will be in the upper teens to low 20s and southwest winds will be slightly breezy in the moderate category. Significant snowfall is possible tonight into Saturday with the potential for a couple of feet. Check our mountain weather forecast which will be updated by about noon for more details.

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

Skis found - Mt Aire trailhead (Lambs Canyon exit). Call to ID 801-524-5304.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake – Alta Central (801-742-2033)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Discount Lift tickets: Ski Utah, Backcountry.com, Alta, Deer Valley, Park City, The Canyons, Wolf Mountain, Snowbasin, Beaver Mountain, Brighton, Sundance, and Solitude have donated a limited number of tickets for sale.

Wasatch Powderbird Guides flight plan.

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

You have the opportunity to participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting avalanche and snow observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

Donate to your favorite non-profit – The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center. The UAC depends on contributions from users like you to support our work.

The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

We will update this forecast tomorrow morning. Thanks for calling.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.