Provo Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Brett Kobernik

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

The avalanche danger is Level 2 (MODERATE) in areas that received more then 5 inches of snow especially in wind drifted locations such as along ridgelines. Watch for these fresh drifts on a variety of aspects as the wind shifts to the east today.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Well, this storm certainly favored upper Little Cottonwood Canyon with around 15 inches of 3% density snow for storm totals (PHOTO). You’ll find that it’s settled to around 10” and you’ll also find that as you get away from upper Little, the snow amounts drop off drastically. There is 4 to 6 inches of settled new snow in upper Big Cottonwood and along the upper Park City Ridgeline. In Ogden and Provo only a trace to a few inches accumulated. Temperatures are in the single digits and winds are from the north northwest. Speeds bumped just slightly overnight with moderate to stronger gusts most pronounced above 10,500 feet. It looks like the winds were fairly well behaved along the mid elevation ridges.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Fresh wind slabs will be the most active concern for today. Low density snow is easily transported into sensitive drifts. These will be very manageable in that people with some experience will easily recognize areas of concern and should be able to figure out how sensitive they are by tweaking test slopes and by using slope cuts prior to diving into steeper slopes. Keep in mind that the wind direction is likely to switch to the east later which will produce loading patterns that we don’t usually see. You may see drifts form on westerly facing slopes.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Out of the wind the low density snow may have the tendency to sluff when disturbed. I doubt the sluffs will pack much of a punch unless they’re on a long and sustained slope but it’s worth a mention. Watch for this on all aspects.


THREAT #3

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Lastly, the buried persistent weakness in our snowpack seems to be dormant at the time being but don’t dismiss it just yet. I won’t be satisfied to put this to bed until we see a significant snow storm without avalanches breaking into it. This issue is very spotty right now but it’s an unmanageable situation in that it’s very hard to predict whether a slope will release or not. While spotty in distribution, this problem poses the greatest threat for injury. Upper elevation easterly facing slopes over 35 degrees in steepness are the most suspect. The most recent avalanches failing on surface hoar have been in the Cascade ridge area.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Snow flurries may continue for a portion of the day without a whole lot more accumulation. They’ll taper off as the day goes on. Temperatures will remain cold in the single digits and we’ll see moderate northerly winds increase a bit switching more northeast as the day progresses. East wind events can be gusty. Temperatures remain cold tonight and into Wednesday but will gradually be on the rise with a nice temperature inversion taking place into the later part of the week. We remain in a northerly flow with a potential brush by storm for the weekend and a ridge of high pressure following into next week.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake – Alta Central (801-742-2033)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Discount Lift tickets: Ski Utah, Backcountry.com, Alta, Deer Valley, Park City, The Canyons, Wolf Mountain, Snowbasin, Beaver Mountain, Brighton, Sundance, and Solitude have donated a limited number of tickets for sale.

Wasatch Powderbird Guides flight plan.

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

You have the opportunity to participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting avalanche and snow observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

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The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

We will update this forecast tomorrow morning. Thanks for calling.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.