Provo Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Drew Hardesty

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

The avalanche danger will again rise in the steep wind-drifted terrain above about 7,500’. It'll be on the stornger end of MODERATE and most pronounced at the upper elevations easterly-facing terrain. Human triggered avalanches up to a foot deep are possible. Watch for the danger to be on the rise over the course of the day. With enough variability and uncertainty along with the changing conditions, extreme caution is warranted.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Today’s the last piece of the prolonged storm – let’s hope it all doesn’t blow into the Uinta Basin. We picked up another couple of inches overnight, pushing storm totals to roughly 4-8” across most of the range. Just paw into the new snow and it’s like you’ve ripped open a bean bag – all the white stuffing and Styrofoam pellets will come streaming out.

Temperatures continue to rise into the upper 20s and low 30s – but it’ll be the Wind that makes the headlines. The westerlies are already blowing 30, gusting to 40, and are not exclusive to the exposed ridgelines. They’re just getting started. By midday they should be blowing 40-50mph with gusts to near 70. This may be a conservative estimate.


RECENT ACTIVITY

We received no reports from the Provo backcountry, but we heard numerous reports of cracking and collapsing, with one experienced skier caught and carried in upper Little Cottonwood. Another party remotely triggered a pocket off the Supreme ridgeline into Dry For a steep southwest facing wind-drifted slope in the Alta periphery. (Photo on Current Conditions) Estimated dimensions were up to 14” deep, 100’ wide and running 150’ down the slope, leaving “an impressive debris pile”. A cornice I released into the Wolverine Cirque also pulled out a new wind drift that produced an impressive powder cloud into the basin below.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 12 hours.

With something of a break overnight, the danger will soon ramp back up today with the forecast of an additional 4-7"”of snow and strong westerly winds. The danger will be most pronounced along the upper elevation easterly facing terrain and not necessarily limited to the steepest slopes.

The cornices and wind drifts will become increasingly stubborn and may propagate wider than expected, or even behind you.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 12 hours.

With its round or lunar-lander shape, graupel can have a tendency to ‘pool’ at slope transitions or at the base of cliffs and couloirs, and can have wildly varying amounts from slope to slope. While we don’t have the classic bread and butter ‘persistent’ interfaces of surface and depth hoar and faceted snow, we do have a number of interfaces up to a couple feet deep that are trying to heal and adjust to the new load(s).


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

We should see another good shot of snow today under an increasingly moist unstable northwest flow. Areas favored by this track stand to pick up 4-7"” or so by early evening. Temperatures will drop into the mid teens at 10,000’ and the mid-20s at 8000’. The westerly to northwesterly winds will be punishing, with speeds in the 40-50mph range, with gusts to near 70. I expect them to let up overnight. A clearing and warming trend is on tap (along with some stronger southwesterly winds) for mid-week ahead of what looks to be another large scale prolonged storm system for the intermountain west.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

For an avalanche education class list, click HERE.

If you want to get this avalanche advisory e-mailed to you daily click HERE. UDOT highway avalanche control work info can be found HERE or by calling (801) 975-4838. Our statewide toll free line is 1-888-999-4019 (early morning, option 8). For our classic text advisory click HERE. If you’re getting out and see anything we should know about please let us know. You can leave a message at (801) 524-5304 or 1-800-662-4140, or email us at uac@avalanche.org. (Fax 801-524-6301) The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. We will update this advisory by 7:30 tomorrow morning.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.