Provo Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Drew Hardesty

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

The danger will rise again to CONSIDERABLE today and tomorrow for wet avalanching on the steep sun exposed slopes. Natural and human triggered slides are certain. Avoid the steeper sunlight slopes – and watch for indicators such as rollerballs and pinwheels – or your boots or sled bogging down in the snow. You may be too late. Pockets of MODERATE remain for lingering weaknesses in the northerly mid-elevation bands that may be up to 2’ deep.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Skies are clear. Ridgetop temperatures continue to warm – they’re in the upper 20s to low 30’s already – and winds are nary a whisper. It’s a time of transition for the snowpack. Something that passes as supportable corn exists on the lower elevation steeper sunny aspects, and all that’s left of the weekend’s dense powder is relegated to the highest due north terrain. No matter – these are beautiful days, friends. Don’t forget the sun hat, watch, and skin wax.

RECENT ACTIVITY

Under clear skies and skyrocketing temperatures, natural wet sluffs gouged down some of the steepest southerly terrain yesterday though we heard of no close calls or anyone overstaying their welcome on the damp-to-saturated snow.

Two indicators from yesterday. The first was a large full depth glide avalanche in upper Broads Fork of Big Cottonwood canyon. It was estimated to be about 6’ deep and 150’ wide, running over 1000’. Gauging from the lack of snow or wind blown snow on the slabs, the best guess is that it ran overnight Sunday into Monday or early Monday morning. BEFORE yesterday’s warm-up. (pics posted).

The second – roof-a-lanches in upper Big Cottonwood canyon. Not laughable – Utah’s suffered some incidents in the past. Even an avalanche worker in Alaska was killed not long ago under the sliding tons of snow off a roof.

THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 12 hours.

Warmer overnight temperatures, continued light winds, and even warmer temperatures than yesterday should be more than enough to make the steep east through south through west aspects dangerous by mid-morning. The fair-at-best refreeze will soften earlier today – plan you exits accordingly, even on the steep seemingly mid to low northerly exits. Extensive naturalling in the saturated snow is likely again – human triggered long running sluffs are certain with the slightest provocation.

Glide Avalanches:

Poorly understood, but often running on steep smooth bed surfaces such as rocky slabs or grassy slopes. The skids are often greased with percolating meltwater – and with the indicator on what we call The Diving Board, one could only imagine what may yet release today and tomorrow. Remember – these are catastrophic full depth releases. Unsurvivable. They’re most common in Broads, Mill B South and Stairs Gulch, sub-drainages of mid-Big Cottonwood Canyon.

THREAT #2
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Erratic winds and gusts allowed for some erratic cornice development; still, watch for increasingly sensitive cornice failure with the rapid warming over the next day or two. Give the yawing waves a wide berth – the stiffening arcs may well break behind you.

THREAT #3
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

These should not be forgotten. These layers have begun to heal, but I’m not ready to pronounce these layers from early to mid-February over and done. It’ll still be possible to trigger one of these persistent slabs primarily in the mid-elevation bands in the northerly terrain, particularly in areas north of Big Cottonwood Canyon. Ski and slope cuts are not effective here.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

We’ll have clear skies, light winds, and temperatures pushing into the low 40s at 10,000’ and the mid 50s at 8000’. Warmer temps expected tomorrow along with some high clouds ahead of Thursday’s approaching storm. Thursday’s storm looks to be a decent producer for snowfall. Clearing for the weekend with another storm possible for Monday night into Tuesday.

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

SLC: Please contact Alta Central (801-742-2033) if you trigger a large avalanche in the backcountry, especially if you are adjacent to a ski area, to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Ogden: Please contact Snowbasin ski patrol (801620-1000/1017) if you trigger a large avalanche in the backcountry, especially if you are adjacent to a ski area, to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Provo: Please contact Sundance ski patrol (801 -223-4150) if you trigger a large avalanche in the backcountry, especially if you are adjacent to a ski area, to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Discount Lift tickets: Ski Utah, Backcountry.com, Alta, Deer Valley, Park City, The Canyons, Wolf Mountain, Snowbasin, Beaver Mountain, Brighton, Sundance, and Solitude have donated a limited number of tickets for sale at discounted prices.

Wasatch Powderbird Guides flight plan.

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30:888-999-4019 option 8.

Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Free UAC iPhone app from Canyon Sports.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

We appreciate all your avalanche and snow observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or fill out the observation form on our home page.

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The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Evelyn will update this forecast tomorrow morning. Thanks for calling.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.