Provo Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Drew Hardesty

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

On Friday, March 20th, the Canyons Professional Ski Patrol Association is having a fund raiser for the Friends of the UAC at Harry O’s. Doors open at 7 pm, and live music from Junior and Transportation, a silent auction, raffle, and more are included in the $15 cover charge/donation. Details

The North American Avalanche Danger Scale is being revised for next winter. Our friends in Canada have created a short survey found at the following link. Please help ensure the new Avalanche Danger Scale is effective by completing a survey. http://surveys.globalepanel.com/wix/p319164581.aspx

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

The avalanche danger will rise to MODERATE and then on to CONSIDERABLE with daytime warming. Wet activity is possible on all terrain but for the high northerly aspects, and will be trigger-able like clockwork with the sun – first on east, then south, then the westerly aspects. When the snow starts to become sloppy and/or unsupportable, you've overstayed your welcome. Uncertainty warrants caution.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Overnight lows are a few degrees cooler than the previous night’s, winds are light, and we have partly cloudy skies. Current temps are in the upper 20’s above 8500’ and in the upper 30’s along the 7500’ elevation band.

RECENT ACTIVITY

White Pine Chute, a steep south facing slide path with a starting zone of just under 11,000’, released a sizeable wet sluff during the heat of the day yesterday. It may be evidence that last week’s storm is still attempting (with varying degrees of success) to stabilize. Other, smaller skier-released wet sluffs rounded out the activity on a number of aspects and elevations but for high north.

THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 8 hours.

Let me start by saying that my confidence level on forecasting today’s wet activity is only “fair” – I think if you got a room full of forecasters together they’d agree that wet snow is a trickier animal than dry, cold snow. OK, enough of the disclaimers.

Here’s what I think: slightly cooler temperatures likely put a “fair” refreeze on the previously melted snow surfaces (all but high northerly)…though I still feel that it capped areas of snow that still may have free water running amongst the wet grains. And so these slightly cooler temps may be a “sucker” variable – and with only light winds and strong sun, the crusts will be quick to soften. You’ll need to poke into the snow with your ski pole, probe, or shovel to determine the extent, if any, of the free water. With much of this sitting on, in many areas, old slick crusts or the couple week old hard dust layer, wet slabs may not be out of the realm of possibility. The potential for this may only be heightened over the next couple of days as 10,000’ temperatures are expected to jump into the mid-to-low 40’s by Friday. Spatial variability has led to many avalanche professionals being caught and carried – myself included.

Many of the mid to lower elevation areas did not receive more than a wafer thin refreeze and the lowest elevations are already isothermal glop. Avoid the unsupportable areas like the plague – change aspect, elevation, and avoid the open terrain after it’s been cooked for a while.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

We’ll have partly cloudy skies, light winds for another warm Spring day. 8000’ and 10,000’ temps will rise into the mid 40’s and mid-30’s respectively. Just when we thought that a dagger had been put into the heart of winter on the Ides of March, winter looks to return for late weekend. Snowfall should persist through at least Monday with temps plunging back to the teens.

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

Wasatch Powderbird Guides didn’t get our yesterday and today will be operating in Silver, Days, Cardiff, Mineral, Mill Creek, American Fork and Cascade, with potential home runs in Grizzly Gulch and White Pine. Check their operations planning page is here.

Our web site is now formatted for iPhone. You can also download a free iPhone application from Canyon Sports to display the Bottom Line. Search for Utah Avalanche on the Apple's iPhone Apps page or in iTunes.

Beacon training parks are up and running! There is one at Snowbasin, one on the Park City side at the top of Canyon’s gondola toward the Tombstone lift, one in Little Cottonwood near the Snowbird parking structure on the bypass road, and in Big Cottonwood a training park is at the west end of Solitude's lower parking lot.

If you want to get this avalanche advisory e-mailed to you daily click HERE.

For a text only version, the link is on the left side bar, near the top.

UDOT highway avalanche control work info can be found by calling (801) 975-4838. Our statewide toll free line is 1-888-999-4019 (early morning, option 8).

Donate to your favorite non-profit – The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center. The UAC depends on contributions from users like you to support our work. To find out more about how you can support our efforts to continue providing the avalanche forecasting and education that you expect please visitour Friends page.

Your snow and avalanche observations can save someone’s life. Please let us know what you're seeing by leaving a message at (801) 524-5304 or 1-800-662-4140, or email us at uac@utahavalanchecenter.org. (Fax 801-524-6301).

The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Evelyn Lees will update this advisory by 7:30 tomorrow morning.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.