Provo Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Evelyn Lees

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

 

Bottom Line for the Provo area mountains:

The avalanche danger is mostly LOW this morning, but the chance of wet, loose sluffs will increase to MODERATE at the low and mid elevations with the arrival of rain and damp snow.   There are also pockets of MODERATE danger on steep, upper elevation shady slopes for the isolated chance of triggering a deeper slide.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

An insulating blanket of clouds kept temperatures warm overnight, with almost all elevations reading between 30 and 40 degrees this morning.  Southwesterly winds are in the 10 to 20 mph range, with a few exposed locations gusting into the low 30’s.  Today’s welcome snow will land on a variable old snow surface: widespread areas of supportable to breakable sun and wind crusts, with a few patches of soft, recrystallized snow mixed in.


RECENT ACTIVITY

No new avalanche activity was reported yesterday.    


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 12 hours.

The combination of warm temperatures and the chance for a bit of rain or wet snow will increase the chance for triggering wet loose sluffs at low and mid elevations today, especially on the shady slopes.  Warmth is nothing new for the sunny slopes, but the cooler snow on the shady slopes could be a bit more reactive.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

The next weak link in our snowpack is the current snow surface, a matrix of surface hoar and near surface facets, in places on or just below thin sun crusts and wind slabs. It will probably take until tomorrow for enough new snow to build up for any action on these layers, but if the storm comes early or with a bit more punch, it may become possible to trigger new snow sluffs or shallow soft slabs on steep slopes by this afternoon.  An unlikely, but outside chance remains of triggering a deeper slab avalanche in thin, rocky starting zones in the higher terrain.  It’s hard to have complete confidence when the snowpack structure includes facets on the ground

And finally, with a thought toward the future, in my field work yesterday I looked at the snowpack on a slope that slid during the December avalanche cycle.   If the weather forecast holds for continued snow through next week, some of these slopes may slide again.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Relief has arrived in a series of warm, moist Pacific storms that will impact the area beginning today.  Mostly cloudy skies today, with rain and snow beginning late morning.  The rain/snow line should rapidly drop to around 7,500’, with 1 to 2” of snow possible today, 3 to 5” tonight, and another 1 to 2” tomorrow.  Water totals are expected to be in the .5 to 1 inch range by Friday afternoon.  10,000’ temperatures will drop to near freezing by mid day, and into the upper 20’s tonight.  Winds will remain from the southwest to west for the next 36 hours, with ridgeline averages generally less than 20 mph.  A stronger system could potentially impact the area early next week.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

 WPG operations planning page is here.

The last of the Brighton Discount tickets have been reduced to $45, with all proceeds going to the Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center.  Click HERE for details.

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center is hosting a Level 2 avalanche class in February which is now open for registration by going to the Black Diamond retail store.  More information is HERE.  

Tickets are now available for the annual Backcountry Awareness Dinner on February 13th, with registration through the Snowbird Renaissance Center.

Beacon training parks are up and running!  There is one at Snowbasin, one on the Park City side at the top of Canyon’s gondola, one in Little Cottonwood near the Snowbird parking structure on the bypass road, and in Big Cottonwood a training  park is at the west end of Solitude's lower parking lot.

If you want to get this avalanche advisory e-mailed to you daily click HERE.

For a text only version, the link is on the left side bar, near the top.

UDOT highway avalanche control work info can be found by calling (801) 975-4838. Our statewide toll free line is 1-888-999-4019 (early morning, option 8).

The UAC depends on contributions from users like you to support our work.  To find out more about how you can support our efforts to continue providing the avalanche forecasting and education that you expect please visit our Friends page.

Your snow and avalanche observations help everyone in the backcountry community.  Please let us know what you're seeing by leaving a message at (801) 524-5304 or 1-800-662-4140, or email us at uac@utahavalanchecenter.org. (Fax 801-524-6301).

The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content.  This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.  This advisory does not apply to ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally conducted.

Bruce Tremper will update this advisory by 7:30 tomorrow morning.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.