Ogden Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Brett Kobernik


Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)

Danger Rose Tutorial

The bottom line is there’s a plethora of weak layers that constitute a continued Considerable avalanche danger on steep upper elevation northwest through east through south facing slopes. Human triggered avalanches are still likely on many slopes. The avalanche danger will be on the rise with today’s winds and additional snow and wind expected during the week.


Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures are on the rise and are into the mid teens to low 20s. Wind speeds are also on the rise from the south southeast gusting into the 40s along the ridges.


There was a good amount of human triggered avalanche activity from Sunday.

A skier triggered an avalanche in Dutch Draw directly adjacent to the site of the fatality from a few days ago. This avalanche looks very similar breaking into the same weak layer. The snowpack is quite weak around the Canyons sidecountry and I suspect this isn’t the last we’ll hear about avalanches in that area. You guys are pushing it over there.

There were also three skier remotely triggered avalanches on Sunday. One was in Dry Fork at the bottom of Eagle Run, east facing, one foot deep, 80 feet wide and ran a couple hundred vertical.

Another was in upper Days Fork on an east facing slope, a foot deep, 125 feet wide running about 500 vertical.

The last was just east of Pole Line Pass near Cardiff Peak and was about a foot deep as well. (You can see the slab starting to release in this photo)

These were all significant avalanches that you would not want to get caught in. Collapsing of southerly and easterly facing slopes was also a very common theme in observations from Sunday. Keep in mind that if you decide to risk getting onto an avalanche path, please do so one person at a time so at least only one person will be involved in an accident. Photo: Silver Fork Meadows


      Over the next 24 hours.

There were numerous persistent weak layers at varying locations within the snowpack that produced avalanches during the last cycle. Some of these will continue to be active. The most prominent revolves around the last wind and graupel event and is most prevalent on east through south aspects. Since I’ve heard many different theories on the weak layer that’s about a foot down, I’d say we don’t have a real good handle on it. We’ll figure it out but in the mean time all you need to know is that it produced three remotely triggered avalanches on Sunday and many people reported that it collapsed on them. The next weak layer that was active is down a bit deeper and consists of small grain facets from early February. These grains aren’t all that alarming when analyzed and I suspect they wouldn’t have ever done much without the addition of high density snow coupled with strong winds that overloaded them. I also suspect these won’t do much in the future unless a similar event occurs.


      Over the next 24 hours.

The last weak layer that was active was the deeper buried facets. The most likely spots for these are in thin snowpack areas outside of the upper Cottonwoods OR in slide paths that have previously avalanched where the snowpack is thin.


We’ll have cloudy skies and mild temperatures today along with gusty southerly winds. Temperatures will be in the 20s along the ridges. A complex storm will move in tonight bringing snow starting out in warm air advection in a southerly flow which should favor the Provo area mountains to begin with. Tuesday morning the flow switches more westerly and should bring more evenly dispersed snow in the Central Wasatch. ½ to ¾’s of an inch of water is expected by mid day on Tuesday translating to around 6 inches of snow or better. There will be a short break and then another more classic “open wave” will move in Wednesday and last into Friday bringing additional snow and probably up to another inch of water weight.


If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake – Alta Central (801-742-2033)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

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We will update this forecast tomorrow morning. Thanks for calling.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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