Ogden Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Drew Hardesty

AVALANCHE WARNING »

Dangerous avalanche conditions are occuring or are imminent. Backcountry travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
Notice:

THE AVALANCHE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ALL THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH. THIS INCLUDES THE BEAR RIVER RANGE, THE WESTERN UINTAS AND THE WASATCH PLATEAU. HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS HAVE EASILY OVERLOADED A WEAK AND FRAGILE PRE-EXISTING SNOWPACK RESULTING IN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. BACKCOUNTRY TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

We have a HIGH danger bordering on EXTREME. Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist with natural avalanches likely and human triggered avalanches certain. Those without expert level experience should avoid "sidecountry" and backcountry terrain altogether. Ice climbing is also not recommended with avalanche potential above many of the routes.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

We're lined up for another good storm. It's warm and windy in the mountains with temps in the mid to upper 30s. The most exposed anemometers are registering wind speeds in the 40-50mph range with gusts to 70. The rain/snow line may begin at 8000' or higher...

RECENT ACTIVITY

All I can say is Wow. We heard of only a couple small naturals in the Snowbasin backcountry, but otherwise it seemed as if the whole world was remotely triggered. Kobernik and I ridge-walked from Supreme to Flagstaff and remotely triggered over a mile's worth of avalanches. North-facing Upper Days itself was half a mile wide. We also heard of a partial and near complete burial in the Brighton backcountry of Hidden Canyon - a steep northerly facing slope at 9500' - but heard of no injuries.

Most slides were 1-2' deep with some more wind loaded slopes pulling out up to 3' deep. Aspects ranged from west to southeast with many pulling out in the mid-elevations and mid-slope. Hangfire (snow remaining above the top of the avalanche) and cornices were sensitive, pulling out 8-10' back onto the ridge. Photo below of (likely) remotely triggered slide into Grizzly Gulch estimated at 500-700' wide. I expect more of the same today.

THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

With another onslaught of heavy wet snowfall and strong winds, natural avalanches are likely today.

Remotely triggered slides are again likely with these hard slabs pulling back onto lower angle terrain and propagating hundreds of yards.

Cornices have grown increasingly large and will again be sensitive and dangerous.

I expect many areas to have repeat avalanches. Areas that have already avalanched continue to have plenty of weak snow to again be overloaded by the next 36 hours of wind and storm snow. Avalanches like these - from above Twin Lakes Pass - below - would be difficult to survive.

THREAT #2
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Consider heavier wet rain and snow falling on the previous storm snow. Avoid being in or above steep gullies where the cement may pile up more deeply.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Weather models suggest another foot of heavy dense snow in areas favored by a southwesterly flow today. Initial rain-snow lines may start at 8500'. A strong cold front is expected to sweep through by mid-afternoon and heavy snowfall should continue through the night. Upwards of 2' of snow is possible through tomorrow afternoon.

Southwesterly winds today will crank 35-45mph with gusts to 60 and remain gusty during and just after frontal passage. Temps will be in the mid 30s then drop to the teens by tonight.

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake – Alta Central (801-742-2033)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOTat (801) 975-4838

Wasatch Powderbird Guides are suspending the opening of helicopter skiing operations. Once we have enough snow cover, daily updates to this blog http://powderbird.blogspot.com/ will begin for the 2011-2012 season.

You have the opportunity to participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting avalanche and snow observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

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We will update this forecast tomorrow morning. Thanks for calling.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.