Ogden Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Drew Hardesty

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Pockets of Considerable dot an otherwise MODERATE landscape in the northwest through east facing terrain above roughly 9500’. Natural avalanches are a thing of the past, but human triggered avalanches 1-2’ deep remain possible. Soft and hard slab avalanches may still be triggered at a distance (even above you) and are likely to propagate more widely than before. Traumatic injury in the threadbare coverage remains severe – it’s just as likely to get dragged into rocks, stumps, and trees as it is to be buried in a slide.

The danger is LOW on slopes less than 30 degrees in steepness with nothing steeper above.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

The moist and breezy northwesterly flow is starting to lose some steam and dry out. Skies are mostly clear, temperatures are in the teens, and the Mt. Ogden winds are a more reasonable 15-20mph with gusts to 30. Should be a pleasant day in the hills. Yesterday’s stronger winds resulted in some wind damage and drifting, but creativity and tolerance should be enough to piece things together. Low angle protected terrain in the shady aspects should again be the ticket for today.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Few reports filtered in yesterday, though we did hear of continued collapsing of the weekend’s storm snow onto the old weaker snow beneath. Control work in the Cottonwoods continues to produce avalanches 1-3’ deep in the steep upper elevation northerly through easterly terrain. Symptomatic of the snow structure, many of these slides went on to pull out pockets in adjacent terrain.

The accident reports can now be found under Current Conditions>Accidents


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Time tends to heal all wounds, but it’s not time yet. Perhaps most have circled the wagons, stopped and taken stock of the madness, tragedy, and avalanche conditions from Sunday.

The storm snow from the weekend is starting to gain some strength and the interface between it and the weak sugary faceted snow now buried 1-2’ down is starting to slowly adjust. In other words, while human triggering was likely over the last few days, it is slightly less so now. There are fewer signs of the instability, but the structure remains. It’ll be easy to be lured out onto the slope. Give it some time.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

The stronger northwesterly winds likely produced some stiffer drifts along the high lee (primarily with an easterly component) terrain which may crack out with provocation. Anything that starts to move may step down into the older October/November snow below.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

It’s a day of transition. We’ll have clear skies, light to moderate backing winds to the west, and 8000’ and 10,000’ temps in the upper 20s and teens, respectively. Ahead of what looks to be a potent, if somewhat short-lived, storm late Friday into Saturday, we can expect rapidly warming temperatures and escalating southwesterly winds tomorrow into Friday. The cold front crashes through by late afternoon and we can expect upwards of a foot of snow, with perhaps a bit more in areas favored by a northwest to westerly flow. The Lake Effect looks favorable at this time to add some to the snow totals – stay tuned.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake – Alta Central (801-742-2033)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

You have the opportunity to participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting avalanche and snow observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

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The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

We will update this forecast tomorrow morning. Thanks for calling.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.