Ogden Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Brett Kobernik

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

We start out with a LOW avalanche danger this morning. The danger will rise to MODERATE as the snow piles up during the day. The danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE if we see a period of heavy snowfall. This means dangerous avalanche conditions with natural avalanche activity possible and human triggered avalanches likely. Stay out of the bottom of any avalanche path during this period.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Some clouds moved through overnight but skies have cleared out again. We have mild temperatures in the mid 30s up to around 9500’ where temperatures are hovering around freezing and in the upper 20s above that. Southwest winds blew pretty hard overnight with gusts into the 50s and 60s along the highest terrain but have slowed again only gusting into the 30s and 20s along the mid elevation ridges. With the continued warm temperatures there was only a very superficial refreeze of the snow surface from radiational cooling with damp, punchy snow underneath especially at the lower elevations.

RECENT ACTIVITY

There wasn’t much in the line of wet avalanche activity on Saturday due to winds helping keep the temperatures in check. Friday was the most active day for wet activity during this period in the central Wasatch.

THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

For today our main concern will focus on new snow that’s expected this afternoon. The avalanche danger can spike rapidly with the onset of heavy snowfall. Over the last month we’ve had a handful of storms that have done just that. In fact, they produced more snow faster and earlier than expected which, in turn, initiated natural avalanche activity. Consequently, we needed to do mid morning updates to the avalanche advisory. If it again snows harder than expected today, we could be in the same situation this afternoon. Any way you look at it, the avalanche danger will be on the rise as the day progresses.

THREAT #2
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 5 hours.

Also, if you’re “monkeying” around at lower elevations, you’ll want to keep in mind that the snowpack is wet below around 8000 feet and may produce avalanche activity at those locations. This probably won’t pose much threat but it’s worth a mention.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

We’ll see a little sun this morning before the storm moves in mid day. Temperatures will get into the mid to upper 30s at 8000 feet. Winds may increase again just a bit this morning from the southwest before switching to the northwest and decreasing somewhat mid day. The cold front arrives between noon and 2pm when snow should start. 3 to 6 inches expected by late this afternoon with a period of heavy snowfall possible. Ridgetop temperatures drop into the teens tonight with continued snow with another 6 inches or better possible in a northwest flow. Showers may linger through mid day Monday.

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

A camera found on east face of Lone Peak around the 18th. If it’s yours, call Tyson at 801-573-3146.

Wasatch Powderbird Guides did not fly yesterday, and will not fly today. Check their operations planning page is here.

Our web site is now formatted for iPhone. You can also download a free iPhone application from Canyon Sports to display the Bottom Line. Search for Utah Avalanche on the Apple's iPhone Apps page or in iTunes.

The North American Avalanche Danger Scale is being revised for next winter. Our friends in Canada have created a short survey found at the following link. Please help ensure the new Avalanche Danger Scale is effective by completing a survey. http://surveys.globalepanel.com/wix/p319164581.aspx

Beacon training parks are up and running! There is one at Snowbasin, one on the Park City side at the top of Canyon’s gondola toward the Tombstone lift, one in Little Cottonwood near the Snowbird parking structure on the bypass road, and in Big Cottonwood a training park is at the west end of Solitude's lower parking lot.

If you want to get this avalanche advisory e-mailed to you daily click HERE.

For a text only version, the link is on the left side bar, near the top.

UDOT highway avalanche control work info can be found by calling (801) 975-4838. Our statewide toll free line is 1-888-999-4019 (early morning, option 8).

Donate to your favorite non-profit – The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center. The UAC depends on contributions from users like you to support our work. To find out more about how you can support our efforts to continue providing the avalanche forecasting and education that you expect please visitour Friends page.

Your snow and avalanche observations can save someone’s life. Please let us know what you're seeing by leaving a message at (801) 524-5304 or 1-800-662-4140, or email us at uac@utahavalanchecenter.org. (Fax 801-524-6301).

The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

I’ll will update this advisory by 7:30 tomorrow morning.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.