Ogden Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Drew Hardesty

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

 A SPECIAL AVALANCHE STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN UINTAS AND THE WASATCH PLATEAU.  THEY'VE NEARLY DOUBLED THEIR SNOWPACK SINCE THURSDAY, OVERLOADING A WEAK PRE-EXISTING BASE.  IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO TRIGGER LARGE, UNSURVIVABLE AVALANCHES ON STEEP NORTHERLY THROUGH EASTERLY TERRAIN.  RECREATIONISTS SHOULD AVOID STEEP SLOPES UNTIL CONDIITIONS IMPROVE.


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

There is a lingering MODERATE danger for storm snow instabilities.  By their nature, they are not limited to aspect, or in this case, to the upper elevations.  Sluffing will be likely, too, in the new snow and will be catalyzed by any direct sun.  If the winds start to pick up, super soft wind slabs will be a certainty on the lee of ridgelines and high breakovers.  Avoid thin rocky starting zones and be suspicious of thinner, repeater areas from Christmas.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

This morning’s few more flakes are the sweet icing on a 30-40-50” right side up layer cake that reaches from Logan to Ogden, across the Uintas, into the central and southern Wasatch, and down to the Plateau.  Fortunately, the Thursday/Friday deluge of rain and heavy snow was soon followed by lower density snow, culminating in the current 5% of cold smoke.  Overnight lows plummeted to below zero and the low single digits.  The winds have been on their best behavior through it all, but are just beginning to tip their hand.  But the headlines are the epic riding conditions– I expect a full feeding frenzy in the backcountry today.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Some limited visibility offered a glimpse of the natural cycle from Sunday into Sunday night.  My photos were poor, but I could make out many new-snow-only avalanches in High Ivory, along the Ivory Flakes, the Cardiac Ridge, a low pocket in Holy Toledo, and other minor releases on unnamed terrain.  Aspects ranged from northwest to north, and around to southeast, and most looked to be 1-2’ deep and up to 200’ wide.  Others reported thinly buried bed surfaces and crown lines off Gobblers Knob and the Monitors (along the Park City ridgeline).  Other very large naturals released Saturday in Provo (the Fingers above Sundance into Dry Lakes and off of Elk Point near Aspen Grove) and Sunday in the Ogden mountains (Hell's Canyon area).

 

Yesterday’s activity included shallow soft slab activity up to a foot deep and 75’ wide and some long running sluffs in the low density snow.  With improving visibility, we’ll get a better extent of the storm’s natural cycle. 


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Most, but not all, of the intra-storm weaknesses have healed through natural sintering and settlement.  Absent a significant persistent weakness and wind, I’d further offer that stability will have improved dramatically in the last 36 hours.  The wild card will be the forecasted building northwesterly winds.  Regardless, both of these problems can be effectively managed by experienced riders.   Cornice drops and slope cuts across the starting zone can offer a great deal of information about that particular terrain.  Test slopes and simple column isolation tests will also offer good beta. Follow safe travel procedures: put only one person on the slope at a time.  Get out of the way at the bottom.  Have a plan.  Don’t let the powder go to your head.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Sensitivity and distribution of ‘trigger-able’ deep slab areas are low on the scale here, but areas perhaps more prone (especially after 4-6” of snow-water-equivalent) are in old snow repeater avalanches (that came out during the Christmas cycle) and thin, rocky terrain.  Explosive releases have pulled out some slides into much older snow.  We haven't had any reports from the backcountry.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Cold, unstable air on a northwest flow should keep a flurry or two going this morning ahead of what looks to be a beautiful day in the Wasatch.  Temps will be subzero up high, warming to the low single digits.  Winds are expected to increase to 20-25mph from the northwest.  A weak storm moves through tomorrow with another round of snow.  We may see 4-8” in favored locations.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

 Wasatch Powderbird Guides did not get out yesterday, and will have one ship in Silver Days and Cardiff, with another ship in AF.  Operations planning page is here.

 

The last of the Beaver Mountain Discount tickets have been reduced to $35, with all proceeds going to the Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center.  Click HERE for details.

 

 

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center is hosting a Level 2 avalanche class in February which is now open for registration by going to the Black Diamond retail store.  More information is HERE.  

 

 

Tickets are now available for the annual Backcountry Awareness Dinner on February 13th, with registration through the Snowbird Renaissance Center.

 

 

Beacon training parks are up and running!  There is one at Snowbasin, one on the Park City side at the top of Canyon’s gondola, one in Little Cottonwood near the Snowbird parking structure on the bypass road, and in Big Cottonwood a training  park is at the west end of Solitude's lower parking lot.

 

 

If you want to get this avalanche advisory e-mailed to you daily click HERE.

 

For a text only version, the link is on the left side bar, near the top.

UDOT highway avalanche control work info can be found by calling (801) 975-4838. Our statewide toll free line is 1-888-999-4019 (early morning, option 8).

 

 

The UAC depends on contributions from users like you to support our work.  To find out more about how you can support our efforts to continue providing the avalanche forecasting and education that you expect please visit our Friends page.

 

 

Your snow and avalanche observations help everyone in the backcountry community.  Please let us know what you're seeing by leaving a message at (801) 524-5304 or 1-800-662-4140, or email us at uac@utahavalanchecenter.org. (Fax 801-524-6301).

The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content.  This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.  This advisory does not apply to ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally conducted.

I will update this advisory by 7:30 tomorrow morning.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.