Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Friday - March 23, 2018 - 6:54am
bottom line

The avalanche danger remains mostly MODERATE today but with accumulating snow and wind we could see areas of CONSIDERABLE danger developing in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Be alert to changing conditions and be on the lookout for recent shallow deposits of wind drifted snow.

-Right around tree line and above it is still possible to trigger an old hard wind slab or deeper persistent slab avalanche up to 4' deep on slopes that face NW-N-E. Avoid steep wind drifted slopes, blind convexities, and areas of rocky or more radical terrain. Steep wooded areas are also suspect.

-With warm temperatures, the lack of a solid overnight refreeze, and rain on snow below 10,000' there is also the danger for loose wet avalanches. Signs of instability include roller balls, pinwheels, and punchy or sloppy wet snow. Get off of, and stay out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.




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current conditions

It's warm, wet, and windy. Light preciptiation is falling this morning, likely in the form of rain at the Geyser Pass Traihead where the temperature is 38 degrees. It should be turning to snow just above there as 10,000' temperatures are just under freezing. 3"-5" of dense, wet snow are possible today. Southwesterly winds are averaging 30 mph with gusts as high as 50. Avalanche conditions are going to be a bit tricky today with wet snow at lower evelations and developing wind slabs up high.

Base depth in Gold Basin: 39" Base depth at Geyser Pass Trailhead: 26"

New snow totals in Gold Basin.

Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead, (9600')

Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Road conditions to Geyser Pass Trailhead: Grand County plowed the road on Tuesday. Expect to find it snowpacked and slicked with mud on the lower end.

Grooming conditions: Trails are not groomed.
recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

With new snow and wind in the forecast today expect to find shallow new wind slabs developing on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain.

In addtion, old hard wind slabs, and areas of drifted snow are scattered liberally throughout the high country. Avoid slopes that have a smooth, rounded, fat appearance, or that feel hollow under foot.. A triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous persistent slab avalanche. Choose slopes wisely and avoid steep convexiiteis and blind break overs.

A few of the ridges are starting to develop large cornices. Give cornices a wide berth when you are traveling on ridge crests where they are present and be aware of what's above you.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

The persistent slab problem is tricky. Some areas have relatively strong snow and other areas still have very weak and reactive snow. The weakest areas are in steep, rocky, and wooded terrain right around tree line and above where the base of the snowpack is plagued by loose, sugary, faceted snow. Slopes with an easterly component are the most suspect. The snowpack may be stronger on more open slopes and bowls The only way to know for sure is to dig down and perform a stability test. Also keep in mind that thinner areas along slope margins and near rock outcroppings can provide trigger points and avalanches up to 4' deep remain possible. The video below illustrates the problem.
Avalanche Problem 3
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Warm temperatures, the lack of an overnight refreeze, and rain on snow all spell potential loose, wet slide activity. Move off of steep slopes as they start to become damp, or especially if they become wet and sloppy. Signs of instability include roller balls, pinwheels, or actual loose snow sloughing.

Even small slides such as this are an indicator of wet snow instability. (Tim Mathews photo)
weather

Snow levels will be dropping a bit and 3"-5" of snow are possible above 10,000' with the storm clearing out by evening. High temps will be in the low 30's and southwesterly winds will average 20-25 mph along ridge tops with gusts in the 30's. Tomorrow looks to be warm and dry,

general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.