Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - March 17, 2018 - 6:37am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE today in steep terrain right around treeline and above that faces NW-N-E, especially on slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Human triggered wind slab, and deeper persistent slab avalanches up to 3' deep are possible in these areas.

Cornices are also developing along some ridges. Give them a wide berth and be aware of what's above you.

Most low elevation, and southerly facing terrain offers LOW danger.




special announcement

Episode 7 of the UAC Podcast "Mastery and False Mastery - An Interview with 'Big' Don Sharaf" is live. With a snow career spanning over 30 years, Don has enough mileage in the mountains to have learned a thing or two, including the profound value of humility when staring into the face of the dragon. Listen in on our conversation about the idea of mastery and if such a thing can exist in the avalanche world. Check it out on ​the UAC blog, ITunes, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcasts.


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current conditions

Southeast winds have been on the increase overnight and they are currently averaging 25-30 mph with gusts to 45. 10,000' temps are in the low 20's. The mountains picked up about 6" of high density snow on Thursday night and I found conditions yesterday to be pretty good, especially on lower angle slopes. Temps stayed cool yesterday and the snow surface remained surprisingly dry most of the day. Nevertheless, the sun is high this time of year so expect to find crusts today on most sun exposed slopes.

Base depth in Gold Basin: 40" Base depth at Geyser Pass Trailhead: 24"

New snow totals in Gold Basin.

Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead, (9600')

Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Road conditions to Geyser Pass Trailhead: 2-5” of new snow is on the road but several vehicles made it up yesterday.

Grooming conditions:The road into Gold Basin was rolled out yesterday.


recent activity

Forecaster Brett Kobernik remotely triggered this large avalanche on Thursday, on the Manti-Skyline. This area is in the north zone of the Manti-La Sal National Forest. This is a frightening display of the power of buried, persistent weak layers.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Southeast winds have been on the increase overnight and we do have snow available for transport. Be on the lookout today for new wind slab development on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface, and avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.

A few of the ridges are starting to develop large cornices and today's winds will create new, sensitive additions. Give cornices a wide berth when you are traveling on ridge crests where they are present and be aware of what's above you.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Thursday's storm added almost 3/4 of an inch of water weight to the snowpack. When we are dealing with buried weak layers, especially dormant ones, it's always a question of how much load can we add before they become active again. I did not find the snowpack to be very re-active to stability tests yesterday, but I suspect that with the addtional load, some slopes might now be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. The most likely areas for triggering an avalanche up to 3' deep can be found in steep terrain right around treeline and above that faces NW-N-E. Shallow areas along slope margins, or near rock outcroppings create potential trigger spots, and avoidance of this type of terrain remains the safest course of action.

With more snow in the forecast for Sunday the likelihood of triggering a persistent slab avalanche will become more prevalent. The video below illustrates the current structure. The snowpack is considerably weaker in wooded, rocky, and shallower areas.

weather

Today will be breezy up there with SSW winds blowing in the 25-30 mph range along ridge tops. High temps at 10,000' will be near 30 degrees. Mostly sunny skies this morning should give way to approaching clouds and a chance for snow showers late this afternoon. We should pick up a couple inches overnight, with the bulk of the storm moving through on Sunday. Looks like we might see 5-9".

general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.