Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Thursday - March 15, 2018 - 6:50am
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The avalanche danger is generally LOW this morning but could rise to MODERATE this afternoon as wind and blowing snow form shallow wind slabs on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Be alert to changing conditions and be on the lookout for recent deposits of wind drifted snow.

It may still be possible to trigger an old hard wind slab, or persistent slab avalanche up to 3' deep on a buried weak layer of sugary, faceted snow. The most likely areas to trigger an avalanche are on steep, wind drifted slopes right around treeline and above that face NW-N-NE.




special announcement

How does an avalanche accident happen? What is it like to be caught? What can we learn? Read a first-hand account of an avalanche accident in the Meadow Chutes that happened in January.

Episode 6 of the UAC podcast "A Conversation with Tom Kimbrough" is live. We explore ideas about lifetime exposure to risk and what role Buddhism has played in his life as a climber, skier, and soon-to-be octogenarian. We talk about what has changed over the years in snow science and the role of mentorship in the world of avalanche forecasting and other professions and pursuits. Check it out on ITunes, Stitcher, the UAC blog.


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current conditions

Skies are cloudy and southerly ridge top winds are cranking in the 30 mph range with gusts as high as 50 mph. 10,000' temps are in the high 20's. Mixed bag, spring-like conditions are in effect and the snowpack remains shallow and thin. Most surfaces are wind and sun crusted, and many south facing aspects are melted out to the ground.

Base depth in Gold Basin: 32" Base depth at Geyser Pass Trailhead: 20"

New snow totals in Gold Basin.

Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead, (9600')

Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Road conditions to Geyser Pass Trailhead: The road is plowed but snowpacked and icy in places with mud on the lower end. Good tires and at least front-wheel drive recommended.

Grooming conditions:


Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

With snow not forecasted to begin falling until later today, I don't expect a rapid rise in the avalanche danger. But by afternoon wind and blowing snow will start to form shallow wind slabs on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. These shallow drifts shouldn't pack too much of a punch but backcountry travelers should neverthess be alert to changing condtions and be on the lookout for recent deposits of wind drifted snow. In areas of steeper=, more commiting terrain, a triggered shallow wind slab could sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Layers of weak, faceted snow still exist in the snowpack, especially at the base. I don't expect the new snow to add much stress to these buried weak layers, but there still might be places out there that are sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. Continue to suspect areas of steep, rocky, or radical terrain right around treeline and above that faces NW-N-E where it still may be possible to trigger an avalanche up to 3' deep on weak, sugary, faceted snow near the ground. Shallow areas along slope margins, or near rock outcroppings create potential trigger areas.

If we get a significant amount of snow over the weekend the load may be enough to reactive these buried weak layers, and the likelihood for triggering a persistent slab avalanche will become more prevalent.

weather

Today look for snow showers and periods of blowing snow mostly after noon. 2-4" are possible. Blustery SW winds will be on the increase averaging 30-35 mph along ridge tops. High temps at 10,000' will be in the high 20's.

general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.