Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Drew Hardesty for Saturday - March 3, 2018 - 6:48am
bottom line

Areas of MODERATE danger exist for human triggered avalanches 1- 3' deep. These will be most pronounced at and above treeline on steep northwest to north to southeasterly facing slopes. The best and safest riding conditions can be found on low angle shady, wind sheltered slopes with no overhead hazard. The danger may rise on Sunday in lock-step with the storm. Stay tuned.




special announcement

UAC Moab (La Sals/Abajos) forecaster Eric Trenbeath and I are on a short exchange through Sunday. He'll be taking my shifts in the UAC - Salt Lake office this weekend. I'll have forecasts up for the La Sals through Sunday and for the Abajos on Saturday and Sunday.

If anything needs my attention or if there are pertinent snow, weather, or avalanche observations, please submit an observation or email or call me directly: [email protected] or 801.842.8519. Thanks -


Episode 6 of the UAC podcast "A Conversation with Tom Kimbrough" is live. We explore ideas about lifetime exposure to risk and what role Buddhism has played in his life as a climber, skier, and soon-to-be octogenarian. We talk about what has changed over the years in snow science and the role of mentorship in the world of avalanche forecasting and other professions and pursuits. Check it out on ITunes, Stitcher, the UAC blog.


The UAC Marketplace is still open. Our online marketplace still has deals on skis, packs, airbag packs, beacons, snowshoes, soft goods and much more.


INSTAGRAM! We now have a UAC-Moab Instagram page. You can find it here....but better yet follow us on your smartphone. Confused? Ask a teenager.

current conditions

Warm and windy ahead of the storm. Mountain temperatures are in the upper 20s to mid-30s with ferocious winds along the ridgelines. The Pre-Laurel anemometer spins at 35mph with gusts to 50mph. Winds along the highest peaks are much higher. One could even see dramatic plumes off the high peaks from town yesterday. (photo from yesterday morning below.) Expect more of the same today - if not more-so...ahead of tomorrow's frontal passage.

Upper elevation total snow depths are 2-3' with significant wind and sun damage among the exposed talus up high, although one can find soft settled powder in the more protected terrain. February has been a good month for us during an extremely lean winter. The mountains have received 45" of snow since Feb 6, and last week brought 18" - 20". Conditions are greatly improved but it's still thin up there so use caution and tread lightly.

I went up along the Laurel Highway to the weather station and poked around in the north woods on Thursday and went to check on snow and avalanche conditions in the Abajos yesterday. You can find my reports here and here.

Base depth in Gold Basin: 35" Base depth at Geyser Pass Trailhead: 23"

New snow totals in Gold Basin.

Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead, (9600')

Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Road conditions to Geyser Pass Trailhead: The road is snowpacked and icy in places. Good tires and at least front-wheel drive recommended.

Grooming conditions: Trails were rolled out into Gold Basin mid-week.


A look at this season compared to last year..and the average. The below graph is from the NRCS La Sals Snotel site at roughly 9570'. We are currently 60% of average - and - well off of last year's banner snowpack season. Pray for snow.

recent activity

The last reported avalanche occurred just over a week ago on February 22nd - the large natural in the Gravel Pit Lanes - the NE face of Tukno 3.5' deep and 150' wide. Since then, the only known avalanches have been shallow natural wind pockets releasing in the high alpine in the wind zone.

The strong southerlies ripping along the ridgelines may contribute to two avalanche problems:

  1. Natural cornice fall which then provides enough of a trigger to pry out a hard wind slab or persistent slab below
  2. Natural release in isolated areas of hard wind slab in the high alpine.

Your information to us helps to save lives. Reports of avalanches, cracking, collapsing or any other information makes a difference. It's easy to do, even from your smartphone. Thanks -

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Owing to the thin and threadbare early season snow conditions, the current snowpack holds a poor structure both within the mid-layers and (more significantly) near the ground. Avalanche activity, collapsing, cracking - all surefire bulls-eye clues are absent as of now, but persistent slab avalanches are aptly named. At this point, these fall into the "low-probability -- high consequence" regime with avalanches stubborn but consequences real. This structure is most pronounced on steep mid and upper elevation west to north to southeast facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations and more likely to be pried out with heavy loads (cornice drop, other avalanche cascading down from above, or - as a person - finding a thin weak spot on the slope). Avoidance is the ticket - the risk/reward algorithm really doesn't match up right now.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Hard wind drifts are scattered across the landscape and would also best be described as stubborn, not sensitive. Remember that with soft slabs, you're "in" the snow; with hard slabs, you're "on top of" the snow. Hard slabs are devious because they often break above you on the slope and may not release on the first, second, or third person. They may also propagate onto lower angle slopes. Cracking and collapsing may not be evident. These hard slabs are more pronounced on northwest to east to southeast facing slopes in the alpine, but terrain channeling (as noticed yesterday) allows for drifts to be on a variety of aspects in the mid elevations.


Cornices. As always, if you're traveling along the higher ridgelines, give cornices a very wide berth. The hard cornices can break well back from the apex of the ridgeline.

weather

For today, we'll have very warm and windy conditions with increasing cloudy cover by this afternoon/evening. Temps today at 10,000' will rise to the upper 20s but crash to the low teens tomorrow. Southerly winds along the highest peaks again will be 40+ with gusts to 70+. The La Sals may see upwards of 4-8" of snow by later Sunday with things clearing out rapidly by early Monday. High pressure dominates through the week with perhaps another storm for next weekend.

general announcements

The UAC has new support programs with Outdoor Research and Darn Tough. Support the UAC through your daily shopping. When you shop at Smith's, or online at Outdoor Research, REI, Backcountry.com, Darn Tough, Patagonia, NRS, Stio, Amazon, and eBay a portion of your purchase will be donated to the FUAC. See our Donate Page for more details on how you can support the UAC when you shop.

Benefit the Utah Avalanche Center when you buy or sell on eBay - set the Utah Avalanche Center as a favorite non-profit in your eBay account here and click on eBay gives when you buy or sell. You can choose to have your seller fees donated to the UAC, which doesn't cost you a penny.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.