Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Sunday - January 14, 2018 - 6:59am
special announcement

This advisory will be updated intermittently with a general conditions report until snow coverage is sufficient for winter travel.

We've scheduled our annual Backcountry 101 avalanche course for Feb 2,3. For more information or to register go here.

We've also scheduled a Motorized Backcountry 101 for snowmobiles and snowbikes. For more information or to register go here.

current conditions

The combination of sunshine, and snow from last week have prompted folks to get out in the mountains and push their luck on the thin snow cover. I made a trip up to Pre Laurel Peak on Saturday, but kept my skins on for much of the descent. Overall coverage ranges from 10" at the Geyser Pass Trailhead to up to 20" in drifted areas right around treeline and above. In between, sun exposed slopes that had no snow on the ground prior to the last storm cycle have 6" or less, and many wind exposed upper elevation slopes show bare rocks. Actual turning on skis or snowboards is not recommended, and snowmobiling off of the roads is asking for a damaged machine.

Prior to the December 21 storm, most areas were dry ground excepting sheltered, north facing slopes below tree line, and on few protected slopes above where snow had collected in gullies and depressions. These areas harbor weak faceted snow, and do pose a threat on slopes where there is more than about a foot of snow.

Snowfall History: Dec. 21- 10" Jan. 7 - 4" Jan. 9 - 2" Jan. 10 - 2" Jan. 11 - 4"

New snow totals in Gold Basin.

Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead, (9600')

Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Coverage remains exceedingly thin, and it's going to take at least another good storm to make travel conducive in this kind of terrain.


This foreground slope gives the appearance of decent coverage and there is 12-18" of drifted snow here. But it is extremely variable and can quickly go down to 6" or less. Note rocks, and the highly featured surfaces on the sunny slopes in the distance.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The overall thin coverage, and lack of accessibility to avalanche terrain, have prevented me from posting an overall danger rating up to this time. But the underlying snowpack has been demonstrating it's inability to support the most recent load, and collapsing and cracking over small areas has been a regular occurrence since the last storm cycle. What this means is that we have a developing persistent slab problem where weak, sugary, faceted snow near the ground is creating an unstable base. In my travels into the high country on Saturday, I determined that there are areas that hold enough snow to produce an avalanche. These areas are primarily on slopes that face NW-N-E above about 11,000' here there is more than about a foot of snow. The test results below illustrate the problem, and it is only going to worsen.

weather

We're stick under another ridge until mid-week, when a weak storm system will bring clouds and a chance at precipitation. Models are projecting a storm for the area by the weekend.


general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.