Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - February 18, 2017 - 6:55am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is generally LOW this morning, but will likely rise to MODERATE later today as new snow and wind conspire to form fresh wind slabs in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Steep slopes that face W-N-E will be most affected. Be be alert to changing conditions. Suspect smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow and look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface.




special announcement
current conditions

Trace amounts of snow fell overnight. We'll see a little lull in the "action" this morning before things pick up again around noon. 3"-5" is in the forecast today and we could see a foot of snow by the end of the day tomorrow. SE winds overnight have blown steady in the 20-30 mph range. It's currently 18 degrees on Pre Laurel Peak, and 32 at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

On Thursday, my partner Dave Garcia and I got up into the high country on the north face of Mount Mellenthin. We found a variety of conditions including very slick and hard, wind blown, and sun crusted surfaces. We also found some nice, re-crystallized "powder" on sheltered northerly aspects. Though fun to ski, these loose, faceted crystals could become our next weak layer in the snowpack and we'll need to be alert to an increasing avalanche dagner over the next few days.

Yesterday I was down in the Abajo Mountains, but Reed Kennard, and Ryan Cutter both sent in reports from their travels in the La Sals yesterday. To read thier observations go here.

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak. (11,700')

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin. (10,000')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. (9600')
recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Be on the lookout for newly formed wind slabs in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain later today. Expect to find them on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls, and sub-ridges, on slopes that face W-N-E. Be alert to changing conditions and keep an eye out for recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Today's wind slabs should be shallow and not well connected but will likely pack more of a punch by tomorrow.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next hours
description

Backcountry mountain travel carries inherent risk. Here are some additional hazards to be alert to today:

Loose snow - You may encounter loose, dry sluffs within the sugary, re-crystallized surface snow.

Cornices - a few of the highest ridge lines have developed some large cornices. Give them a wide berth.

Slide for life - Very hard, slick surfaces exist and you could take a very dangerous slide. Be sure of your footing, especially in high consequence areas above cliffs.

weather

A series of storms will impact the area this weekend with the greatest chance for heavy snowfall on Sunday.

Today

Snow. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 10am. High near 30. Breezy, with a south wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. Widespread blowing snow, mainly between 11pm and 3am. Low around 23. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 28. South wind around 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
general announcements

Road conditions: The road to Geyser Pass Trailhead is plowed with a mix of packed snow, dirt, and mud at lower elevations.

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.